F1 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Review (Undercutters Ep37 transcript)
I said before that Azerbaijan was one of my favourite circuits. Would it live up to my hopes, or be a letdown? Here’s what happened at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Qualifying 00m37s
Qualifying was ridiculously long at 2 hours, and this was all down to half a dozen red flags. One was unnecessary, thrown up too rapidly for a Hulkenberg crash when he was able to keep moving, but the other five were all necessary. Between that, late rain, and many a hot lap aborted by the flags we had a chaotic, crazy qualifying.This left the grid in some turmoil. One shock departure in Q1 was Alexander Albon, who had looked very good but crashed out to end qualifying in last position. A similar fate befell Oliver Bearman in 15th, while Hamilton was unexpectedly slow in 12th. If Hamilton had been on the medium tyre then maybe he would’ve got through, but there we are. In Q3, both Piastri and Leclerc crashed out.
Early laps amid Q3’s light rain put Sainz on provisional pole, and he ended up in 2nd behind Verstappen. The second row was Lawson and Antonelli, with Russell and Tsunoda forming row three. Norris failed to make the most of his title rival’s mistake and could only manage 7th, just ahead of Hadjar. Row five was Piastri and Leclerc.
Ocon, who had gone out in Q1, then got disqualified when his rear wing was found to have breached a technical regulation, and so started in 20th.
This crazy result made predicting the race rather difficult. Why had the qualifying been so full of crashes? Mostly it was because of wind, particularly gusts that caught out drivers on multiple occasions as tail winds required earlier braking but the sudden and brief nature of the gusts made it very easy for a driver error to happen.
Race Review 2m35s
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix was nowhere near as chaotic as qualifying, and while it did have its moments it was a little too steady. I’m going to go through things team by team.There was a mix of medium and hard tyres on the grid, and off the line Piastri had a shocker. He started by jumping the start, then hit anti-stall and got passed by everyone. Unluckily for Alonso the Spaniard followed Piastri’s jump and got himself a 5s penalty. But it was worse for the Aussie, who locked up and ploughed into the wall on lap 1, bringing out the safety car. This was the only retirement in the race.
Norris had a golden opportunity, but various DRS trains formed up and he found it very difficult to get past the likes of Tsunoda and Lawson. Undercutting was the right approach but the stop was slow and he ended up stuck behind Lawson and Tsunoda and unable to get past. In the end all he could get was 7th, which is still helpful to narrow the gap to Piastri but he really should’ve taken a huge bite rather than a little nibble out of the lead the Aussie enjoyed. I think Piastri will be heartily relieved that his uncharacteristic mistake was not more severely punished.
Red Bull were very good indeed. Verstappen had a crushing victory that never, ever looked in doubt. While Sainz did well to keep in touch for a little while this was mostly down to Verstappen looking after his tyres for a long stint. Come the chequered flag, Verstappen was a pit stop ahead of everyone except those on the podium.
It was also a very good result for Tsunoda. The Japanese driver had a good qualifying and although he often seemed slower than those around him he defended very well to keep them there. With his career in F1 very much on the line, this sort of solid weekend is just what he needed.
Sainz has had a rough 2025. Sometimes he’s been unlucky, sometimes he’s been off the pace. But this weekend he had a near perfect qualifying and pace in the race to compete with the Mercedes. The Spaniard was flawless, and I don’t think anything more was possible in his Williams than the 3rd he got. After a lot of tough results, this will be a huge shot in the arm for him and it helps the team tighten their grip as the top midfield team this season. It also means Sainz in his Williams got a podium before Hamilton in his Ferrari.
Albon had an unusually weak result. The Williams was fast but he made a mistake in qualifying and started on the back row. I expected him to carve through the field, given his car’s speed, but DRS trains made it difficult, and a clumsy overtake on Colapinto got him a deserved 10s penalty. This put him down in 13th at the flag, overshadowed by Sainz and making it a weekend to forget.
Temperatures were cool and the skies overcast in Baku, and this probably helped out Mercedes. The two drivers got close early on, Russell having to bail out and then losing a place, I think to Tsunoda, which he rapidly regained. When the two Mercedes drivers got close again the team boxed Antonelli early and Russell, who was very happy on his tyres, stayed out for a long first stint. This worked perfectly, enabling Russell to pass not just Antonelli but Sainz too, to get 2nd which is the best that was on offer today. Given Russell’s been unwell, this is a great result.
Antonelli also had a very good Sunday, following up his impressive Saturday and not putting a foot wrong in either qualifying or the race. Like Tsunoda, the Italian rookie really needed a clean weekend and he got a big haul of points as well.
Racing Bulls had a very good result, and for a while it seemed that Lawson might’ve been able to hold onto the final podium spot. However, the pace difference was just too much for him to fight the Mercedes, but 5th is still a really good result to follow up a fantastic qualifying. Hadjar got the final point in 10th, making it an extra 11 for the team overall. Given how tight the midfield is, these points are critical, especially with Sauber, Haas, and Aston Martin all failing to score.
Ferrari were a bit like Norris: full of promise, hamstrung by a weak qualifying, and unable to make much headway in the race. In a weekend full of remarkable midfield results, 8th for Hamilton and 9th for Leclerc is not exactly something to write home about. It’s even more galling when you consider how good they looked in practice, with a crack at pole seeming to be possible. I’m sure they’ll have better weekends, but I did think they’d do a lot better in Baku.
Both Bortoleto and Bearman had reasonable races, finishing 11th and 12th respectively, and beat their team mates. Azerbaijan can have plenty of DNFs and these two rookies would’ve been first in line to benefit but it wasn’t to be. Ocon was 14th, not bad given he started last, and Hulkenberg was 16th.
I didn’t expect Aston Martin to do well, straight line speed is perhaps not their strength, and Alonso was also hit with a 5s penalty for jumping the start. A pointless weekend for them, but in the last five races they’ve had three pointless results and two double digit points results so I expect them to bounce back, sooner or later.
Gasly and Colapinto were last on the road. But this is slightly misleading, at least in the case of Colapinto. He was actually doing ok, following a very good start, when Albon tagged him in a clumsy overtake. The Thai driver was too far back and spun Colapinto around, costing him perhaps 15s. It wasn’t Colapinto’s fault at all, and but for that he probably would’ve ended up with a slightly better result. Overall, the Alpine’s just the worst car on the grid and it’s difficult for the drivers to score most weekends.
Is Verstappen in the Title Fight? 8m32s
A question raised by commentary was whether Verstappen was still in the title fight.The short answer is no.
He has performed very well, with two wins and a 2nd in the last three race weekends. But the gap to Piastri is 69 points. With 7 race weekends left that means Verstappen needs to average a 10 point advantage to finish ahead by a single point.
Gusty conditions in qualifying and rare Piastri mistakes stopped the Aussie’s scoring streak this weekend, but that won’t usually be the case. Verstappen is on a great run of results but I think it very unlikely he’ll be able to drag himself back into contention.
It’s not quite impossible, but it’d be remarkable if it happened.
At the sharp end, Norris has reduced Piastri’s advantage over him to 25 points. This was a missed opportunity for the British driver, largely due to the slow pit stop.
A bigger question, I think, is whether this was just an off-weekend for Piastri or if the pressure is finally getting to him. If Norris had crashed out in qualifying then jumped the start, and then crashed on lap 1 the whole world would be attacking him for cracking under the pressure.
Until now, Piastri has been cool as a cucumber. And this might just be a one-off. We’ll find out in a fortnight in Singapore.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions Assessment 10m00s
My prediction for Leclerc to get pole was credible but ended up very wrong when the Monegasque crashed out in Q3.I got almost everything in the race wrong. My saving grace was Hadjar scoring, which he did with a 10th place finish. But my predicted podium of Norris, Leclerc, and Piastri was entirely wrong, as was my guess Hulkenberg would score.
After qualifying I thought my extra prediction for a crash and DNF in the last 10 laps was looking good, but apart from Piastri on lap 1 the race didn’t feature anything like that.
F1 News 10m37s
F1 news.
I mentioned a little while ago that Aston Martin’s development this year, following their new wind tunnel getting up and running, was very good, and that this boded well for 2026. This has been backed up by none other than Fernando Alonso, who has said that the team trusts the tools in the factory following positive development in 2025. And this makes things look good for 2026.
Alonso is not going to be the favourite for next year’s title but he could be a credible contender. He’s still an extremely good driver, Adrian Newey is an excellent designer, and with the development facilities and test data correlating well this year that bodes very well for Newey’s 2026 design. A key component will be the engine, and we won’t know how they all shake out until we get to 2026, but plenty of people think Mercedes and Honda will be in good shape.
We’ve also had confirmation of where the half-dozen sprints of 2026 will be. The locations are China, Miami, Canada, the UK, the Netherlands, and Singapore.
The last might seem surprising, as Singapore is very, very difficult to pass on. And so is Zandvoort. I’ve got to admit, I thought this year was the last Dutch Grand Prix but it seems it’s next year. While it’s not my favourite circuit I’m not sure it deserves to be punished with a sprint.
Most people will be miffed Interlagos, the best of all the tracks, doesn’t have a sprint. The Brazilian circuit is so good it can even make a rubbish little pretend race entertaining. And yes, sprint races are my least favourite aspect of modern F1. That makes the rumours that we’re going to have more in 2027 rather galling, but not very surprising. I’ve said it before, but Liberty’s approach to the calendar, especially regarding sprints, has always been a glutton’s view that more is always better.
Another bit of calendar news is that Azerbaijan is set to stay on the calendar until at last 2030. I rather like the circuit, so this is some good news.
Thank you all for listening. I had decided, a little while ago, to end the podcast at the conclusion of this season. For a while now I’ve struggled to find the time and with some irksome health problems. I want to stress those problems are annoying but they’re not life-threatening or anything like that, but they have made things more difficult.
Because of that, I’ve decided to call it a day now. This will be the last Undercutters podcast.
I am, almost certainly, going to continue rambling about F1 betting both on my blog and Twitter and Blue Sky accounts. As always, bet at your own risk, and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Thank you again for listening.
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