Italian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Qualifying’s been very competitive this season and Monza was a perfect example, as drivers from one of three or four teams could’ve credibly taken pole.
Q1 saw us lose Hadjar, Stroll, Colapinto, Gasly, and Lawson. The Kiwi made a mistake on his last lap which is why Lawson’s last, and most of the others aren’t a surprise. Hadjar is, however, and apparently he had problems with warmup as well as making a mistake on his lap.
Q2 was also very close and I was surprised to see both Williams exit at this stage. Bearman was fastest of those out, ahead of Hulkenberg (in a shockingly High For Hulkenberg 12th), Sainz, Albon, and Ocon. Seven-hundredths would’ve put either Bearman or Hulkenberg into Q3.
And so into Q3. The McLarens hadn’t been looking as dominant as expected through qualifying, with Russell (on mediums, weirdly) and the Ferraris looking like they might pose a threat. But it was Verstappen who put in a fantastic final lap to take pole away from Norris. Piastri ended up 3rd, ahead of Leclerc. Hamilton was fifth fastest but has a 5 place grid penalty, so the third row will be Russell and Antonelli, who had a much needed solid qualifying. Bortoleto had another very good Saturday, and leads row four ahead of his manager, Alonso. Tsunoda in 9th is relatively good for the Red Bull second seat, and there’s a lot of murmuring about him possibly losing not just his Red Bull slot in 2026, but his place on the grid entirely.
So, things are set up very nicely for the grid. However, the race may well be 1 stop, and passing is tricky.
Leclerc, podium
Verstappen, win each way
Bortoleto had another great qualifying and starts in 7th, while Hulkenberg’s 12th is one of (if not the) best starting positions he’s had all year. Both stand a pretty good chance of ending up in the points. Unfortunately, their odds are 1.44 and 2.25 respectively, which feels too short given how incredibly competitive the pace is and the possibility of lap 1 woe as everybody tries to make passes before DRS trains develop.
Leclerc’s a great qualifier and put his Ferrari up into 4th. Verstappen has a credible shot at the win and the McLarens need to be a little wary of both each other and risking anything against the Dutchman, who can be rather tough defensively. Add to that the possibility of McLaren double-stacking and losing out and the Ferrari could end up on pole. The odds are evens, which isn’t bad, or great.
Verstappen’s pole position and Norris seemingly being set up more for corners than the straights could see him hold on and perhaps even develop a lead. Still a big ask to maintain his place, especially if it proves borderline between 1 or 2 stop. I’m intrigued he’s only 2.5 at Ladbrokes (Russell was way longer in Canada). Could be worth backing at 3.2 on Betfair, and hedging around 1.5 or so. While not a slam dunk, this is the best value of my initial three betting thoughts.
Q1 saw us lose Hadjar, Stroll, Colapinto, Gasly, and Lawson. The Kiwi made a mistake on his last lap which is why Lawson’s last, and most of the others aren’t a surprise. Hadjar is, however, and apparently he had problems with warmup as well as making a mistake on his lap.
Q2 was also very close and I was surprised to see both Williams exit at this stage. Bearman was fastest of those out, ahead of Hulkenberg (in a shockingly High For Hulkenberg 12th), Sainz, Albon, and Ocon. Seven-hundredths would’ve put either Bearman or Hulkenberg into Q3.
And so into Q3. The McLarens hadn’t been looking as dominant as expected through qualifying, with Russell (on mediums, weirdly) and the Ferraris looking like they might pose a threat. But it was Verstappen who put in a fantastic final lap to take pole away from Norris. Piastri ended up 3rd, ahead of Leclerc. Hamilton was fifth fastest but has a 5 place grid penalty, so the third row will be Russell and Antonelli, who had a much needed solid qualifying. Bortoleto had another very good Saturday, and leads row four ahead of his manager, Alonso. Tsunoda in 9th is relatively good for the Red Bull second seat, and there’s a lot of murmuring about him possibly losing not just his Red Bull slot in 2026, but his place on the grid entirely.
So, things are set up very nicely for the grid. However, the race may well be 1 stop, and passing is tricky.
Early Betting Thoughts
Bortoleto/Hulkenberg, pointsLeclerc, podium
Verstappen, win each way
Bortoleto had another great qualifying and starts in 7th, while Hulkenberg’s 12th is one of (if not the) best starting positions he’s had all year. Both stand a pretty good chance of ending up in the points. Unfortunately, their odds are 1.44 and 2.25 respectively, which feels too short given how incredibly competitive the pace is and the possibility of lap 1 woe as everybody tries to make passes before DRS trains develop.
Leclerc’s a great qualifier and put his Ferrari up into 4th. Verstappen has a credible shot at the win and the McLarens need to be a little wary of both each other and risking anything against the Dutchman, who can be rather tough defensively. Add to that the possibility of McLaren double-stacking and losing out and the Ferrari could end up on pole. The odds are evens, which isn’t bad, or great.
Verstappen’s pole position and Norris seemingly being set up more for corners than the straights could see him hold on and perhaps even develop a lead. Still a big ask to maintain his place, especially if it proves borderline between 1 or 2 stop. I’m intrigued he’s only 2.5 at Ladbrokes (Russell was way longer in Canada). Could be worth backing at 3.2 on Betfair, and hedging around 1.5 or so. While not a slam dunk, this is the best value of my initial three betting thoughts.
Perusing the Markets
Browsing the markets found the following:
Russell, podium, 4.5
Russell starts in 5th and might’ve done better if he’d had the medium tyre he wanted in Q3. He’s been driving very nicely all year and is likely to get preferential treatment from Mercedes in terms of strategy. I can see him getting past Leclerc, might need a stroke of luck (or misfortune for those ahead) to make up much more ground, though.
Anyway, I’m backing Verstappen to win on Betfair at 3.2. I’ve set up a hedge at 1.5.
Morris Dancer
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