F1 2025 Azerbaijan Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep36 transcript)

Hello, everyone. This is the 36th Undercutters podcast, and we’re going to look ahead to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. I’m Morris, and you can find me on Blue Sky or Twitter as MorrisF1. Transcripts are posted to morrisf1blogspot.com. 

Baku is one of my favourite destinations. It can sometimes be a little steady but can also throw up very chaotic races. The circuit is one where Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc are both very quick, and as Perez isn’t on the grid this year this may mean Leclerc can do well in qualifying and the race. Or perhaps I’m underestimating Verstappen, and he’ll spring another surprise.

The McLaren Monza Strategy 00m50s

But before we look ahead to Azerbaijan, I want to talk a bit about the McLaren decision last race, which seemed to catch most people by surprise or look ridiculous to them. While I admit it was a slightly odd situation, it didn't surprise me in the slightest. That's why I didn't comment on it much last time, but given the general reaction it seems explaining my lack of surprise might be a good idea.

McLaren are determined not just to have two number one drivers for the long term but also to keep them on a very friendly footing, unlike past rivalries such as Vettel and Webber, Hamilton and Rosberg, and Prost and Senna. Because Piastri is very calm and Norris is very nice, this actually has a genuine chance of working. So far, Norris has given up a race win in Hungary 2024 on team orders when they foolishly undercut Piastri, at which time Norris was in a title fight with Verstappen, and Piastri has given up a 2nd place to Norris last race when the pair are in a title fight with each other. Both were due to accidental undercuts.

The Hungary situation was odder because Piastri was nowhere near the title fight, *and* undercutting him was unnecessary. But given the desire to keep both drivers sweet, McLaren decided it was worth sacrificing points in Norris' title race to deliver a rather awkward first win for the Aussie, who had been the clear leader in that race until that point. It was a strategic team decision that led to the positions swapping in the pits, and then swapping back again on-track. 

In Monza, Norris should've stayed ahead, but he had a weirdly slow stop. He offered to defer priority to Piastri for the first stop, to have a better chance of staying ahead of Leclerc. Or, if you take a more cynical view, so that a safety car wouldn’t benefit Piastri at Norris’ expense. Norris was also assured there would be no undercut, and we've heard on previous radio messages, such as Piastri in Hungary this year, that the two McLarens are typically more concerned with each other than drivers from different teams. This was a case of bad luck with a slow stop instead of a misjudgement by the team, so it wasn't quite the same as Hungary.

McLaren's driving force behind its strategy is not winning a race, or even a title. It's maintaining a stable and positive relationship between two very good, very evenly matched drivers for the long term. You might disagree with that approach and remember the needle between Hamilton and Rosberg or Vettel and Webber rather fondly, but it is why they do what they do. The alternative here was to let things stand. Norris may have passed on-track, as he was faster on the day, but if he hadn't then, having been assured he would not be undercut, that could've been the first step in a journey to a fractious relationship. Again, that would make things feistier and perhaps rather more interesting, but McLaren do not care about being interesting. They care about having two number one drivers who get along, for the long term. 

This does set a precedent, if you don't think Hungary last year did that already, of 'correcting' positions when pit stop strategy is either unwise or executed badly. But we've had a very close title battle this year and this is the first time it's really been a factor. 

I hadn’t planned to talk about this, but the reaction of others to the strategy made me think it was worthwhile. I was not remotely surprised by McLaren’s decision, but I was surprised by the fact that other people thought it unexpected. Yes, it’s slightly weird and boring, but it fits in perfectly with their overall approach.

Quick Look at the Baku City Circuit 4m34s

The Baku City Circuit hosts the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, holding its first race in 2016. In terms of being a tight and twisty street circuit it’s highly reminiscent of Monaco, with one major exception: a very long straight. This makes overtaking far more possible than in Monaco, and can also see safety car restarts be very chaotic. In the past, some races have been fantastically eventful but others have been rather more steady.

The track is just over 6km long and runs for 51 laps. There are two DRS zones, each with its own detection point. The first is on the straight between turns 2 and 3, and the second is at the end of the long straight from turn 19 to turn 1. This is, as you might expect, prime passing territory.

Pirelli’s stats have lots of extremes, with 1/5 for asphalt abrasion and lateral force, and 5/5 for traction and track evolution. Only tyre stress is middle of the road. In the past, when the tyres were more crumbly, we did see some dramatic failures but that’s unlikely to happen this season.

From pole to the first corner braking zone is 141m, a very short distance.

The Last Azerbaijan Grand Prix 5m49s

In 2024, Leclerc started on pole alongside Piastri. Sainz and Perez were on row two, with Russell and Verstappen behind them. Norris started down in P15.

Off the line, Leclerc held the lead ahead of Piastri, while Perez took third from Sainz and Verstappen claimed fifth from Russell. Further back, Norris made up three places on the first lap.

Tsunoda and Stroll made contact, with the Canadian suffering a puncture as a result.

Meanwhile, Leclerc kept the lead but Piastri was able to stay within DRS range. Norris continued to make progress and soon had himself in the top 10. Eventually, Leclerc did manage to build a couple of seconds over Piastri to ease the pressure and put the Aussie out of DRS range. 

Russell and Verstappen were the first of the top six to box, on lap 13, but Leclerc, Piastri, Sainz, and Albon stayed out, as did Norris. Perez pitted a lap after Verstappen. Most had started on the medium tyre but both Albon and Norris, who started ninth and fifteenth respectively, were on the hard tyre.

Norris was able to keep Perez behind him, which helped Piastri stay ahead when it was his time to pit. The two Ferraris boxed on lap 17, Leclerc retaining his lead ahead of Piastri and Perez. But Piastri was back in DRS and made a great move to snatch the lead away from Leclerc. The Monegasque fought it, and looked faster, but Piastri defended perfectly to keep the position.

Laps 23 and 24 were rather good for Sainz as he passed first Norris and then Albon for fourth place. Leclerc was still close to race leader Piastri, but third-placed Perez was drifting back.

Albon finally got to change tyres on lap 32, swapping hard for medium.

At the front, Piastri made a mistake which forced him to defend against Leclerc and allowed Perez to close in as well. 

Lap 38 saw Norris pit, emerging in P7 behind Russell and Verstappen, a pair who had been enjoying quite the fight with Russell just ahead. 

Piastri was still leading but remained clearly slower than those behind him, and Leclerc and Perez were joined by Sainz. But running so close for so long had shot Leclerc’s tyres and the Aussie was able to get a few seconds down the road. At the same time, Leclerc was now facing a threat from Perez and Sainz. Further down the order, Norris made a move and got past Verstappen.

A failed overtake attempt by Perez on Leclerc put the Mexican on the back foot and enabled Sainz to get alongside him. The pair then collided, putting both men out of the race and bringing out the Virtual Safety Car. 

This effectively ended the race, with Piastri claiming a hard-fought win, Leclerc having to settle for 2nd, and Russell being first in line to benefit from the crash and ending up 3rd. Norris was 4th, which is 11 places higher than he started and one place higher than Verstappen. Alonso was 6th (having started one place lower), with Albon, Colapinto, Hamilton, and Bearman completing the top 10.

It wasn’t the craziest Azerbaijan Grand Prix, but 2024 did have its moments, with Norris clawing his way through the field, Piastri taking the win from Leclerc and, of course, the Perez-Sainz crash. Both Stroll and Tsunoda, who made contact earlier in the race, also ended up DNFing.

Predictions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix 9m18s

I’m backing Leclerc to claim pole. He’s always been very good at this circuit, which is mostly Monaco with a straight, and the Ferrari was competitive at Monaco this year.

For the win, I’m backing Norris, on a similar basis. Whether through the pit stops or off the line, Leclerc has a bad habit of not converting poles to wins (which happened here last year). But I do think he’ll end up 2nd ahead of Piastri in 3rd. 

As for midfield points, I think Hadjar will end up scoring. He’s ended a dry spell with three points finishes in the last four races, including a podium, and I think this will continue. I’m also backing Hulkenberg. I could be wrong about this, I just have a feeling he’s going to do well.

My extra prediction is that we will see a crash leading to at least one DNF in the last 10 laps of the race.

F1 News 10m13s

F1 news… or not.

There isn’t really much news, so I’ll just make a quick comment on the McLaren situation. I’m not expecting them to change their ways. Perhaps they will given the general reaction of amusement and mockery, but, if so, it’ll likely be kept quiet and just become another part of the so-called ‘papaya rules’. 

The problem they may have is if things stay very close. Come the last couple of races, asking someone to give up position to a title rival becomes a request less likely to be followed. If Piastri stays a race win ahead that might be avoided, but there’s a small chance such an order could end up determining the world champion. If Piastri goes into the final race 24 points ahead then has an engine failure, with Norris claiming the win and title, he may look back at Monza and be furious with the team, or himself for following the order.

Thank you all for listening. Azerbaijan’s one of my favourite tracks as it can sometimes be very chaotic and unpredictable, so let’s hope the race is one to remember.



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