F1 2025 Dutch GP Review and Italian GP Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep34 transcript)
Hello, everyone. This is the Undercutters podcast, and I’m your host, Morris. You can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky as MorrisF1, and the transcript is available on morrisf1.blogspot.com.
We’ve just had the Dutch Grand Prix, and the Italian Grand Prix is around the corner. Things have been tight between Piastri and Norris all season, and the Zandvoort event was dramatic. But who will triumph in Monza? And can Ferrari pull out an unlikely home victory?
Otherwise the qualifying was highly competitive. Norris had looked the man to beat and while Piastri did get pole it was by just twelve-thousandths of a second. This was not a case of Norris bottling it or making an error, it was just incredibly close. Max Verstappen was best of the rest and started 3rd and he had the very impressive Isack Hadjar right next to him. Great performance to put his Racing Bull in 4th, and Lawson also did well to start 8th. Between the team mates were Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton, with neither Mercedes nor Ferrari able to get anywhere near McLaren. Antonelli just failed to reach Q3 and qualified in 11th. Sainz and Alonso formed up on row five, and I think both Spaniards will be a bit disappointed given the potential they seemed to have earlier in the weekend.
The closest thing to a qualifying upset was Albon qualifying down in 15th. He had the pace to make Q3 but tyre warmup was poor on his final run. Bearman made a mistake, and should’ve escaped Q1, but instead qualified 19th.
At the start, most were on medium tyres. One exception was Max Verstappen, who went for soft, as did Tsunoda, Colapinto, and Hulkenberg. Ocon and Bearman, the latter starting from the pit lane, went for hard tyres. As it turned out, every strategic approach could work out for points.
Off the line Norris started well but got boxed in behind Piastri and alongside Verstappen, enabling the Dutchman to claim 2nd place. While it took Norris a few laps to get close enough when he did, he didn’t mess about and immediately got ahead of the Red Bull, then started closing in on Piastri. Leclerc got ahead of Russell, but was unable to get past Hadjar, who held onto 4th nicely.
Further back, Albon made up for a poor qualifying by making up 5 places and ending up right behind Sainz. Bortoleto, meanwhile, did the exact opposite, leaving on the handbrake and getting passed by just about everyone except Bearman.
The race then settled down, for a bit. We got light drizzle but those boxing put on dry tyres. There was no need for the intermediate, but things were slippery on the paint off-line, as Hamilton discovered to his cost, straying wide and crashing out to bring out the first safety car.
Most changed tyres cheaply but the Haas chaps stayed out to advance up the order. After the safety car came in Sainz and Lawson had a clumsy racing incident, and the Spaniard got a harsh 10s penalty. It also gave both punctures and forced them to box again, and be a lap down until another safety car enabled them to unlap themselves. Both should’ve been in the points but weren’t.
Russell had gotten ahead of Leclerc but on the restart from a VSC for debris the Ferrari driver muscled his way past, causing some damage, and annoyance, to Russell. Lap 54 saw Ferrari react to Antonelli pitting by boxing Leclerc. The Monegasque emerged just ahead of the Italian, but the younger driver crashed into Leclerc and took him out. This also brought out the safety car again.
It wasn’t the last time. On lap 66 of 72, Norris’ engine failed and he had to retire. A great shame for him, and the title battle. But it also saw Hadjar get onto the podium. Further down, Antonelli tumbled out of the points thanks to his collection of penalties.
Piastri took a deserved win, with Verstappen 2nd and Hadjar getting his first podium . Russell, even with damage, brought his car home in 4th, ahead of Albon’s very good 5th. Bearman was 6th thanks to strategic cunning from his team, and Stroll led Alonso to double points for Aston Martin. Tsunoda in 9th marks rare points for the Red Bull second driver, and Ocon squeaked into 10th to make it double points for Haas too.
This was always a possibility. The Mercedes engine has let down other teams during the course of the season but it’s the first time it’s affected the title race. However, it may not be the last. If it affects Piastri then the impact might be neutralised, if it happens to Norris again that will utterly sink his hopes of a title this year.
Isack Hadjar getting on the podium is great to see. He’s been the rookie of the year so far, and while he inherited the place after Norris DNFed the French driver had earnt the position by fending off Leclerc and Russell all race long. Very solid performance to translate his excellent qualifying into a best ever finish.
We’ve seen Hulkenberg go from the back row to the points (including the podium in the UK), but this time it was Oliver Bearman who went from the pit lane into his best ever finish of 6th. This was due to smart strategy from Haas, who kept their cars out for a long time, benefited from stopping cheaply, and this catapulted them up the order. I think Bearman stayed out during the last safety car which might have helped too.
Bearman’s had some bad luck, with some penalties that make him a one-man argument against British bias and numerous 11th place finishes. Solid performance today, and he benefited from Antonelli’s various penalties.
Another good day, overall, for Williams. The Sainz collision was unlucky and the penalty was harsh, but Albon drove well and the car was splendid in the race. Ending up 5th helps Williams a lot in a tight battle for king of the midfield, but Sainz really should’ve been into the points too (as should Lawson).
On a less happy note, Antonelli did not have a great race. Pretty quick, but when Leclerc emerged from the pits just ahead of him he tried going low at the embankment. Perfectly good idea, except you’ve got to stay low. He drifted wide, caused a collision, took out Leclerc, brought out another safety car, and earned himself a 10s penalty, to which he subsequently added by speeding in the pit lane.
At the end of the number crunching, and after the late safety car bunched up the pack, this put Antonelli into 16th. Meanwhile Russell, who had significant damage following Leclerc’s pass and who had let Antonelli ahead at one point, held on for 4th. Very solid result for the British driver.
Unlike Ferrari. Leclerc continues to have atrocious misfortune. He did nothing wrong, seemed happy to stay out, the decision to box put him just barely ahead of Antonelli, and then the Italian driver smashed into him. At no point did Leclerc do anything wrong, but he got a DNF anyway. Hamilton did make an error, but he was also a bit unlucky the way it turned out. Early light drizzle made the green paint beyond the white line at the embankment slippery. He drifted wide and was unable to stop himself crashing out. A shame, as Hamilton had looked good throughout qualifying and the race up to that point.
I backed Norris to get pole and the win. The former was twelve-thousandths wrong and the latter had a small chance but the engine failure cost him. I had Leclerc in 2nd, who didn’t even finish thanks to Antonelli playing dodgems, and Piastri in 3rd, who won the race.
Midfield points were better. It was a bit unlucky Lawson didn’t come off as he should’ve been top 10 but Bearman did get into the points despite starting in the pit lane. My extra prediction of Verstappen finishing outside the top 5 now looks rather stupid. Oh well.
Further down the order, Aston Martin stay 6th on 62 points, just 2 ahead of Racing Bulls. Sauber have slipped down to 8th on 51, and while Haas remain 9th they’re up to 44 points. Otherwise, the order of the teams is unchanged.
So, from a recent addition to the calendar, which is now leaving it, to a longstanding favourite: Monza.
As might be expected, Pirelli rate Monza at 1/5 for downforce needs, and teams will have the skinniest of rear wings here. That also means the DRS has less impact, because the bigger the wing the bigger the difference when part of it vanishes.
Perhaps surprisingly given all that, it can be tough to pass here. The track is 5.793km long, which gives us 53 racing laps. Right now, Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton are tied for most wins at 5 apiece. From pole to the first braking point is 472m, long enough to cause major problems for a poor start.
There are two DRS zones, the first between turns 7 and 8, and the second on the starting straight.
We had a McLaren front row, with Norris leading Piastri, Russell and Leclerc on the second row, followed by Sainz and Hamilton. Two-tenths covered the top six in qualifying.
Norris held onto the lead into the first corner, but lap 1 saw Russell drop back after taking the escape road. Piastri then caught his team mate napping and took the lead, compromising Norris’ pace so much that he ended up losing out to Leclerc as well. Piastri, Leclerc, and Norris were all running close together early on.
Russell, meanwhile, continued his backwards momentum, with Perez passing him for seventh. When the Mercedes pitted on lap 12 he got a new front wing as well as fresh tyres.
Of the leaders, Norris pitted first, and after Leclerc also boxed the Ferrari was behind the McLaren. Piastri, however, was able to retain the effective lead, albeit with a smaller advantage. The order around halfway into the race was Piastri, Norris, Leclerc, and Sainz.
After a lockup, Norris made his second stop, and Piastri, when asked over the radio, said he thought a one stop was not possible. The Aussie boxed again and came out ahead of Verstappen, who was busy defending against Norris. The British driver did get past, with the Ferraris now leading the McLarens but yet to make a second stop.
And nor would they. Sainz was unable to stop Piastri getting past him, and Norris did the same. Leclerc was managing his tyres very well but Piastri was closing in rapidly. But the Aussie ran out of time, and the Ferrari driver was able to hold onto his tyres, and the lead, to claim an unexpected and fantastic win at the team’s home race.
Leclerc got the win, ahead of Norris and Piastri. Sainz ended up 4th, ahead of Hamilton, Verstappen, and Russell. Perez, Albon, and Magnussen rounded out the top 10.
Ferrari get slammed a lot for bad strategy calls, and while those do happen in 2024 the team got a lot of their decisions right. Monza was the perfect example. It didn’t quite work for Sainz but he likely would’ve finished 4th anyway, but it delivered the win for Leclerc.
We saw in Hungary how going for one stop rather than two proved key to Norris winning, so I’d expect strategy teams to be considering a one-stop in Monza.
However, this will not translate to a race win this year. I’m predicting Piastri to claim another win, ahead of Norris, with Leclerc down in 3rd. I think the McLaren is very hard to beat when it comes to race pace, with Leclerc, Russell, and Verstappen likely to scrabble for the only free podium spot for most of the season to come.
As for midfield points, I’m going to be heroic and back Albon to score. Yep, backing a Williams to do well on a circuit all about straight line speed is not exactly wild and crazy, but I’m backing it anyway. My other midfield points prediction is for Gabriel Bortoleto. The Brazilian’s very good at qualifying and if he can put his Sauber into Q3 then he could hold on for points come the race.
My extra prediction is for Aston Martin to fail to score. Just a feeling they won’t do well there.
Shortly after the last podcast episode we got official confirmation not only that Valtteri Bottas was going to Cadillac, but that he would be joined by Sergio Perez. The two have 246 and 281 Grands Prix respectively, and have each won numerous races at top teams. Both also have experience at midfield teams, and have only been out of the sport for a year.
Many people think this is a boring or playing it safe approach by Cadillac, going for two veteran drivers rather than a mix of a veteran and rookie, as we see at Haas and Sauber. But I think this is a sensible decision. Cadillac are brand new, unlike Haas and Sauber, and while their team principal Graeme Lowdon does have experience in the sport it’s still a solid move to have two drivers bringing over 500 races of knowledge with them.
Not only will Bottas and Perez be good on-track, they both have extensive know-how when it comes to top teams and how they operate. And both have pre-established and substantial reputations, with Perez in particular likely to bring a bucketload of sponsorship and a huge fanbase.
This is not a pairing for the long term, but it is perfect for putting together solid foundations and starting off the team in the right direction. It’s also a slight irony that Bottas and Perez were the number two drivers for Hamilton and Verstappen when they had a rather cantankerous title battle a few years ago, but I expect they’re both relaxed and sensible enough to get along well at Cadillac.
Thank you all for listening. The Italian Grand Prix is just around the corner and the next podcast will be looking back at how it went. Let’s hope we get an unexpected winner like last year.
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We’ve just had the Dutch Grand Prix, and the Italian Grand Prix is around the corner. Things have been tight between Piastri and Norris all season, and the Zandvoort event was dramatic. But who will triumph in Monza? And can Ferrari pull out an unlikely home victory?
Dutch Grand Prix Qualifying 00m39s
Qualifying for the Dutch Grand Prix was eventful. Spare a thought for Aston Martin’s mechanics. They stayed up overnight mending Lance Stroll’s car after a practice crash only for him to immediately hit the wall in qualifying. He was able to get back to the pits but had to retire.Otherwise the qualifying was highly competitive. Norris had looked the man to beat and while Piastri did get pole it was by just twelve-thousandths of a second. This was not a case of Norris bottling it or making an error, it was just incredibly close. Max Verstappen was best of the rest and started 3rd and he had the very impressive Isack Hadjar right next to him. Great performance to put his Racing Bull in 4th, and Lawson also did well to start 8th. Between the team mates were Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton, with neither Mercedes nor Ferrari able to get anywhere near McLaren. Antonelli just failed to reach Q3 and qualified in 11th. Sainz and Alonso formed up on row five, and I think both Spaniards will be a bit disappointed given the potential they seemed to have earlier in the weekend.
The closest thing to a qualifying upset was Albon qualifying down in 15th. He had the pace to make Q3 but tyre warmup was poor on his final run. Bearman made a mistake, and should’ve escaped Q1, but instead qualified 19th.
Zandvoort Race Review 2m25s
I ragged on Zandvoort a bit last time but this was a very entertaining race, with a little drizzle, a few crashes, penalties (at least one of which was harsh), and reliability failures. Or one, at least. Plus about three safety cars.At the start, most were on medium tyres. One exception was Max Verstappen, who went for soft, as did Tsunoda, Colapinto, and Hulkenberg. Ocon and Bearman, the latter starting from the pit lane, went for hard tyres. As it turned out, every strategic approach could work out for points.
Off the line Norris started well but got boxed in behind Piastri and alongside Verstappen, enabling the Dutchman to claim 2nd place. While it took Norris a few laps to get close enough when he did, he didn’t mess about and immediately got ahead of the Red Bull, then started closing in on Piastri. Leclerc got ahead of Russell, but was unable to get past Hadjar, who held onto 4th nicely.
Further back, Albon made up for a poor qualifying by making up 5 places and ending up right behind Sainz. Bortoleto, meanwhile, did the exact opposite, leaving on the handbrake and getting passed by just about everyone except Bearman.
The race then settled down, for a bit. We got light drizzle but those boxing put on dry tyres. There was no need for the intermediate, but things were slippery on the paint off-line, as Hamilton discovered to his cost, straying wide and crashing out to bring out the first safety car.
Most changed tyres cheaply but the Haas chaps stayed out to advance up the order. After the safety car came in Sainz and Lawson had a clumsy racing incident, and the Spaniard got a harsh 10s penalty. It also gave both punctures and forced them to box again, and be a lap down until another safety car enabled them to unlap themselves. Both should’ve been in the points but weren’t.
Russell had gotten ahead of Leclerc but on the restart from a VSC for debris the Ferrari driver muscled his way past, causing some damage, and annoyance, to Russell. Lap 54 saw Ferrari react to Antonelli pitting by boxing Leclerc. The Monegasque emerged just ahead of the Italian, but the younger driver crashed into Leclerc and took him out. This also brought out the safety car again.
It wasn’t the last time. On lap 66 of 72, Norris’ engine failed and he had to retire. A great shame for him, and the title battle. But it also saw Hadjar get onto the podium. Further down, Antonelli tumbled out of the points thanks to his collection of penalties.
Piastri took a deserved win, with Verstappen 2nd and Hadjar getting his first podium . Russell, even with damage, brought his car home in 4th, ahead of Albon’s very good 5th. Bearman was 6th thanks to strategic cunning from his team, and Stroll led Alonso to double points for Aston Martin. Tsunoda in 9th marks rare points for the Red Bull second driver, and Ocon squeaked into 10th to make it double points for Haas too.
Highlights and Lowlights 5m46s
Norris’ engine going was a real shame not just for the Grand Prix but the title battle. It’s been incredibly close all season long, and this failure, combined with Piastri’s win, has increased the Aussie’s advantage to 34 points. We have 9 races left so that’s far from insurmountable, the problem for Norris is he’s so tightly matched with Piastri that he needs some decisive victories to overhaul the deficit created by his engine letting him down.This was always a possibility. The Mercedes engine has let down other teams during the course of the season but it’s the first time it’s affected the title race. However, it may not be the last. If it affects Piastri then the impact might be neutralised, if it happens to Norris again that will utterly sink his hopes of a title this year.
Isack Hadjar getting on the podium is great to see. He’s been the rookie of the year so far, and while he inherited the place after Norris DNFed the French driver had earnt the position by fending off Leclerc and Russell all race long. Very solid performance to translate his excellent qualifying into a best ever finish.
We’ve seen Hulkenberg go from the back row to the points (including the podium in the UK), but this time it was Oliver Bearman who went from the pit lane into his best ever finish of 6th. This was due to smart strategy from Haas, who kept their cars out for a long time, benefited from stopping cheaply, and this catapulted them up the order. I think Bearman stayed out during the last safety car which might have helped too.
Bearman’s had some bad luck, with some penalties that make him a one-man argument against British bias and numerous 11th place finishes. Solid performance today, and he benefited from Antonelli’s various penalties.
Another good day, overall, for Williams. The Sainz collision was unlucky and the penalty was harsh, but Albon drove well and the car was splendid in the race. Ending up 5th helps Williams a lot in a tight battle for king of the midfield, but Sainz really should’ve been into the points too (as should Lawson).
On a less happy note, Antonelli did not have a great race. Pretty quick, but when Leclerc emerged from the pits just ahead of him he tried going low at the embankment. Perfectly good idea, except you’ve got to stay low. He drifted wide, caused a collision, took out Leclerc, brought out another safety car, and earned himself a 10s penalty, to which he subsequently added by speeding in the pit lane.
At the end of the number crunching, and after the late safety car bunched up the pack, this put Antonelli into 16th. Meanwhile Russell, who had significant damage following Leclerc’s pass and who had let Antonelli ahead at one point, held on for 4th. Very solid result for the British driver.
Unlike Ferrari. Leclerc continues to have atrocious misfortune. He did nothing wrong, seemed happy to stay out, the decision to box put him just barely ahead of Antonelli, and then the Italian driver smashed into him. At no point did Leclerc do anything wrong, but he got a DNF anyway. Hamilton did make an error, but he was also a bit unlucky the way it turned out. Early light drizzle made the green paint beyond the white line at the embankment slippery. He drifted wide and was unable to stop himself crashing out. A shame, as Hamilton had looked good throughout qualifying and the race up to that point.
Dutch Grand Prix Predictions Assessment 9m32s
My predictions have been reasonable of late, but in the Netherlands they were rubbish.I backed Norris to get pole and the win. The former was twelve-thousandths wrong and the latter had a small chance but the engine failure cost him. I had Leclerc in 2nd, who didn’t even finish thanks to Antonelli playing dodgems, and Piastri in 3rd, who won the race.
Midfield points were better. It was a bit unlucky Lawson didn’t come off as he should’ve been top 10 but Bearman did get into the points despite starting in the pit lane. My extra prediction of Verstappen finishing outside the top 5 now looks rather stupid. Oh well.
F1 2025 Standings after Dutch Grand Prix 10m16s
At the end of the Dutch Grand Prix, Piastri stands on 309 points to 275 for Norris. I won’t say it’s all over, but this title battle has been so close that a 34 point lead feels very hard to close. Norris is up against it. A great shame bad luck has played out like this, but that’s life.Further down the order, Aston Martin stay 6th on 62 points, just 2 ahead of Racing Bulls. Sauber have slipped down to 8th on 51, and while Haas remain 9th they’re up to 44 points. Otherwise, the order of the teams is unchanged.
So, from a recent addition to the calendar, which is now leaving it, to a longstanding favourite: Monza.
Quick Look at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza 11m05s
The Italian Grand Prix is hosted at Monza, and the Autodromo Nazionale Monza dates all the way back to 1922. It’s old school in another way: most modern circuits have a greater emphasis on downforce than top speed, but Monza is all about straight line power. It also has some lovely gravel traps to punish those who make mistakes.As might be expected, Pirelli rate Monza at 1/5 for downforce needs, and teams will have the skinniest of rear wings here. That also means the DRS has less impact, because the bigger the wing the bigger the difference when part of it vanishes.
Perhaps surprisingly given all that, it can be tough to pass here. The track is 5.793km long, which gives us 53 racing laps. Right now, Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton are tied for most wins at 5 apiece. From pole to the first braking point is 472m, long enough to cause major problems for a poor start.
There are two DRS zones, the first between turns 7 and 8, and the second on the starting straight.
The Last Italian Grand Prix 12m19s
The 2024 Italian Grand Prix had some pretty interesting twists and turns.We had a McLaren front row, with Norris leading Piastri, Russell and Leclerc on the second row, followed by Sainz and Hamilton. Two-tenths covered the top six in qualifying.
Norris held onto the lead into the first corner, but lap 1 saw Russell drop back after taking the escape road. Piastri then caught his team mate napping and took the lead, compromising Norris’ pace so much that he ended up losing out to Leclerc as well. Piastri, Leclerc, and Norris were all running close together early on.
Russell, meanwhile, continued his backwards momentum, with Perez passing him for seventh. When the Mercedes pitted on lap 12 he got a new front wing as well as fresh tyres.
Of the leaders, Norris pitted first, and after Leclerc also boxed the Ferrari was behind the McLaren. Piastri, however, was able to retain the effective lead, albeit with a smaller advantage. The order around halfway into the race was Piastri, Norris, Leclerc, and Sainz.
After a lockup, Norris made his second stop, and Piastri, when asked over the radio, said he thought a one stop was not possible. The Aussie boxed again and came out ahead of Verstappen, who was busy defending against Norris. The British driver did get past, with the Ferraris now leading the McLarens but yet to make a second stop.
And nor would they. Sainz was unable to stop Piastri getting past him, and Norris did the same. Leclerc was managing his tyres very well but Piastri was closing in rapidly. But the Aussie ran out of time, and the Ferrari driver was able to hold onto his tyres, and the lead, to claim an unexpected and fantastic win at the team’s home race.
Leclerc got the win, ahead of Norris and Piastri. Sainz ended up 4th, ahead of Hamilton, Verstappen, and Russell. Perez, Albon, and Magnussen rounded out the top 10.
Ferrari get slammed a lot for bad strategy calls, and while those do happen in 2024 the team got a lot of their decisions right. Monza was the perfect example. It didn’t quite work for Sainz but he likely would’ve finished 4th anyway, but it delivered the win for Leclerc.
We saw in Hungary how going for one stop rather than two proved key to Norris winning, so I’d expect strategy teams to be considering a one-stop in Monza.
Predictions for Italy 14m46s
And so to predictions for Italy, which will hopefully be less rubbish than for the Dutch Grand Prix. I think this is going to see Leclerc on pole. While the McLaren’s fast everywhere, Leclerc is a great qualifier and will have plenty of motivation. Plus, the McLarens occasionally fail in qualifying and Ferrari often bring exclusive upgrades just for Monza.However, this will not translate to a race win this year. I’m predicting Piastri to claim another win, ahead of Norris, with Leclerc down in 3rd. I think the McLaren is very hard to beat when it comes to race pace, with Leclerc, Russell, and Verstappen likely to scrabble for the only free podium spot for most of the season to come.
As for midfield points, I’m going to be heroic and back Albon to score. Yep, backing a Williams to do well on a circuit all about straight line speed is not exactly wild and crazy, but I’m backing it anyway. My other midfield points prediction is for Gabriel Bortoleto. The Brazilian’s very good at qualifying and if he can put his Sauber into Q3 then he could hold on for points come the race.
My extra prediction is for Aston Martin to fail to score. Just a feeling they won’t do well there.
F1 News 16m10s
F1 news.Shortly after the last podcast episode we got official confirmation not only that Valtteri Bottas was going to Cadillac, but that he would be joined by Sergio Perez. The two have 246 and 281 Grands Prix respectively, and have each won numerous races at top teams. Both also have experience at midfield teams, and have only been out of the sport for a year.
Many people think this is a boring or playing it safe approach by Cadillac, going for two veteran drivers rather than a mix of a veteran and rookie, as we see at Haas and Sauber. But I think this is a sensible decision. Cadillac are brand new, unlike Haas and Sauber, and while their team principal Graeme Lowdon does have experience in the sport it’s still a solid move to have two drivers bringing over 500 races of knowledge with them.
Not only will Bottas and Perez be good on-track, they both have extensive know-how when it comes to top teams and how they operate. And both have pre-established and substantial reputations, with Perez in particular likely to bring a bucketload of sponsorship and a huge fanbase.
This is not a pairing for the long term, but it is perfect for putting together solid foundations and starting off the team in the right direction. It’s also a slight irony that Bottas and Perez were the number two drivers for Hamilton and Verstappen when they had a rather cantankerous title battle a few years ago, but I expect they’re both relaxed and sensible enough to get along well at Cadillac.
Thank you all for listening. The Italian Grand Prix is just around the corner and the next podcast will be looking back at how it went. Let’s hope we get an unexpected winner like last year.
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