Miami Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying/sprint

Because of the later starting time, this is going up on Saturday as usual.

First (and only) Practice

In the only practice session this weekend Piastri was quickest, over a third of a second ahead of Leclerc. Verstappen (in an upgraded Red Bull) was a tenth behind, then Sainz was a further tenth back. The Spaniard was three-tenths ahead of Albon, with Hadjar very close behind. Russell followed, then came Tsunoda, Antonelli, and Alonso.

Williams looked especially good in the third sector, 12 minutes in Sainz and Albon were first and second fastest in that sector, respectively, Sainz was consistently quicker. Mercedes also looked rather good (they didn’t set a time on softs only medium tyres). The last five minutes were lost due to a red flag after Bearman had contact with the barriers.

Sprint Qualifying

The first session of sprint qualifying saw Stroll, Doohan, Tsunoda, Bortoleto, and Bearman out. Tsunoda and Bearman had a chance of escaping slip through their fingers when they were unable to get over the line for a final fast lap attempt. Ironically, it seems Tsunoda lost time due to Verstappen slowing to enter the pits, inadvertently holding up his team mate on an out lap. Doohan had a weird problem as being let out a the same time as Gasly apparently stopped him turning sufficiently, forcing the team to wheel him back a bit and enabling others to nip ahead of him. He was less than happy about it. The level of frustration might indicate that he knows Colapinto is going to get his seat sooner rather than later.

In the second part of spring qualifying we lost Hulkenberg, Ocon, Gasly, Lawson, and Sainz. Gasly hit the wall in a minor way during SQ2, so he might have the pace in proper qualifying to reach the third session. Sainz had looked good up to this point but a massive lock up meant he couldn’t set a time which is why he was last in this session.

And so to the final part of spring qualifying. McLaren were looking good, and so were Mercedes, particularly Russell. And yet it was Antonelli who stole the show, grabbing pole by four-hundredths ahead of Piastri. Norris was close behind and shares the second row with Verstappen. Row three will be Russell and Leclerc, with Hamilton and Albon comprising the four row, and Hadjar and Alonso bringing up the rear. Very good stuff from Antonelli, and impressive speed from both Hadjar and Alonso.

For the race qualifying, it’s worth noting Verstappen’s lap was far from perfect so he’s got time to make up.

Betting

I tend not to bet on sprints/qualifying, but Sainz to beat Albon in race qualifying seems like it might be value, odds permitting. It took a long time for the market to appear but when it did he was only 1.9. This is definitely worth it with a free bet. Given the chance of error, traffic, or Albon just putting in a great performance it feels a little too short for me as a standard bet, so no tip.



Morris

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