F1 2025 Imola GP Prix Review and Monaco GP Predictions (Undercutters Ep21 Transcript)

Hello, everyone. I’m Morris, and this is the Undercutters podcast. This episode is reviewing the Imola Grand Prix and looking ahead to the Monaco Grand Prix.

As ever, you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky as MorrisF1, and I post transcripts and graphics of the episodes up on morrisf1.blogspot.com.

Imola is the start of a triple header, and also the start of the European phase of the calendar.

Imola Grand Prix Qualifying 00m31s

Qualifying for the Imola Grand Prix was a lot longer than usual thanks to a pair of red flags in Q1. The first of these was for Tsunoda, whose car was running too low over kerbs, leading to a dramatic and alarming crash. This saw his Red Bull flipped upside down and every corner of it suffered severe damage. Thankfully it rolled right side up and Tsunoda was able to walk away. The later crash by Franco Colapinto, driving for Alpine for the first time. This was more bad news for the Argentine, who ironically ‘made it’ to Q2. Earlier in the session Colapinto left the pits too early following confusion regarding Sauber’s order to hold and wait as the Tsunoda red flag was coming to an end, and got a 1 place grid penalty.

The two red flags made life difficult for the other drivers. In the end, Lawson was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Hulkenberg, Ocon, Bearman, and Tsunoda. Bearman was unlucky, his time was fast enough but the red flag came out moments too soon for him to make Q2.

Speaking of Q2, it was not one to enjoy for Italian fans. While Sainz put his Williams at the top of the time sheet, Aston Martin had a cunning plan: they used the medium tyre. While slower than the soft, it could be pushed without fear of turning to dust. This allowed both Aston Martins to reach Q3 and knock out both Ferraris. Leclerc qualified 11th, right ahead of Hamilton. Antonelli was only 13th. Bortoleto was the slowest to set a time. This was pretty awful for Ferrari with both Williams, both Aston Martins, and Hadjar all reaching Q3.

In the final session it was looking like a three way battle between Verstappen and the McLarens. Piastri’s second run was enough to seize pole ahead of Verstappen. Russell also joined the party, slipping into 3rd right ahead of Norris. If he’s not careful, Norris might find McLaren overtly backing Piastri sooner or later.

The third row was Spanish territory, Alonso leading Sainz and highlighting how well Aston Martin’s upgrades are working. Albon led Stroll on the fourth row, with Hadjar and Gasly giving row five a little je ne sais quoi.

Incidentally, Russell and the two Aston Martins had medium tyres on for their second Q3 runs, which worked rather well.

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Race Review 03m22s

Before the Imola Grand Prix started there was a slight mix of tyres, with Hamilton and Antonelli on the hard, as were Bearman and Tsunoda. The Japanese driver was starting from the pit lane, after his monumental crash in qualifying.

Off the line Piastri got away well but Verstappen put in a daring pass to snatch the lead, and he never looked back. Further down the order, Hamilton had slipped behind Antonelli, which was bad news as they were both on hard tyres. Leclerc, however, soon got ahead of Hadjar.

It took rather longer for Norris to get ahead of Russell, but on lap 11 the McLaren finally made the move stick and was able to set off after Verstappen and Piastri. Meanwhile, Leclerc boxed from 9th. The following lap Russell, who was struggling on his tyres, pitted. Piastri did the same thing the next lap, having been around 3s behind Verstappen and unable to close up. He was comfortably ahead of Russell, but there was an early DRS train running all the way from around the Russell-Norris battle down to 12th.

The initial pit stop phase saw Leclerc leapfrog Russell, Sainz, and Alonso. Further up the road, Piastri had plenty of traffic from the likes of Tsunoda and Bearman but got past pretty quickly in the DRS zone. The Aussie then caught and passed Hamilton and Antonelli, both of whom were still out on their hard tyres.

Lap 29 saw Norris pit, and immediately afterwards Ocon stopped on-track and brought out the Virtual Safety Car. This was perfect for Verstappen, still leading and able to take advantage of a cheap stop. Albon, Hadjar, Antonelli, Hamilton, and Tsunoda did the same thing, as did others, and Leclerc and Russell made a second stop. Piastri then came in a little later in the VSC period for a second stop, emerging in 4th behind Albon and ahead of Hadjar.

The Aston Martins and Norris stayed out, but it wasn’t enough to rescue the green team from their earlier bad strategy call. While 8th and 9th on the road, they had much older tyres and didn’t have the formidable pace of the McLaren. On lap 30, Hamilton was 7th and Leclerc 10th, with fresh rubber. Verstappen was still leading, ahead of Piastri and Norris, with Albon, Hadjar, and Antonelli following.

Hamilton was looking good, and soon passed Antonelli and Hadjar, Leclerc following a few laps later to have the Ferraris running 5th and 6th and catching Albon.

On lap 42 of 53 Verstappen was cruising away from the McLarens, with Norris 18s behind him and Piastri 14s off his team mate.

But four laps later Antonelli’s car broke down and this time there was a full safety car. Verstappen and Norris boxed, Piastri stayed out, making the top three Verstappen then Piastri with Norris in 3rd under the safety car. Leclerc stayed out as he had no fresh tyres other than soft.

When the safety car came in Verstappen scampered off and never looked under threat. We also saw the first on-track battle between the McLarens this year, but as Norris had far fresher tyres and DRS it was not exactly even. After a few laps he got past Piastri but was never able to narrow the gap to Verstappen. Further back, Hamilton was in a racy mood and passed Russell for 6th, then caught up to the Leclerc-Albon battle for 4th. He pounced on an Albon error and soon overtook his team mate to claim 4th, a great turn around from terrible qualifying.

Leclerc defended very well against Albon but after an investigation into potentially forcing Albon wide began the team instructed him to give the place to the Williams. Leclerc did, and wasn’t happy, which is entirely understandable. They finished Albon 5th and Leclerc 6th.

Russell had a weak result, a rarity this season, only finishing 7th. The Mercedes looked well off the pace of their rivals. Sainz finished 8th, a little bit hamstrung by his early stop which meant he had a much longer pit stop than many others. Hadjar’s 9th, given the Ferraris rose into the points, is a nice result for the Frenchman. And Tsunoda recovered from the pit lane to 10th.

At the sharp end, it was a flawless performance from Verstappen for his second victory of the season. Once he was ahead, he always looked likely to win. Norris in 2nd means he claws back a little of Piastri’s advantage. Piastri didn’t really do much wrong and won’t be too happy with 3rd but all good things come to an end, including his winning streak

Imola can be hard for passing and a little bit of a procession but in this race we had varying strategy, plenty of passes, different tyres at the start and it was really rather good. I was pretty surprised by how much overtaking we saw, and the result has put an end to Piastri’s string of victories.

Highlights and Lowlights 08m35s

Verstappen’s race was made by his inch-perfect lap 1 pass. I was a bit surprised Piastri wasn’t more defensive, but it was a fantastic move by Verstappen and from there he always looked like winning.

Although Piastri lost ground to both his rivals for the title this is far from the end of the world. His lead over Norris is only down by 3 points. For Norris, gaining ground and passing Piastri on-track, even given the tyres were very different, will have been a nice moment.

The Aston Martin qualifying performance really surprised me, with Alonso right ahead of the Williams and Stroll right behind them. This is good news in 2025 but perhaps fantastic news for 2026 as it suggests a strong correlation between testing data and the real world. In turn, this means the simulations for the 2026 car should give an accurate picture and enable Adrian Newey to design a quick car. It’s not a guarantee, of course, and the engine will be critical, but this is a positive sign for Aston Martin.

From the sublime to the otherwise, Aston Martin got their strategy entirely wrong in the race. To be fair, they weren’t helped by bad luck with the Virtual safety Car giving Albon, Hamilton, and others a cheap pit stop. But their timing for the first stops was terrible, allowing Leclerc and Sainz to undercut them, losing track position and just being too late. This then put them in traffic, having been passed in the pit stop phase by rivals, and unable to take advantage of the VSC. Both luck and strategy wrecked Aston Martin’s race, and they managed to turn a fantastic qualifying into a pointless race.

Ferrari were the exact opposite. Even though they split the strategy, with Hamilton starting on hard tyres and Leclerc on the medium, and even though they pitted at different times, both calls were right. Leclerc’s early stop helped him undercut those ahead on the road, and Hamilton going long meant he got a cheap pit stop and made up a bundle of places. Ferrari get knocked for their strategy sometimes but today they were spot on and had a deservedly great result.

Williams had a very good result, which is becoming routine for them. Sainz’s early stop left him telling the team it was clearly a one-stop, after hearing how fast Albon was going. Staying out meant the Thai driver got a cheap stop, and both men scored good points.

Last in the points were Hadjar and Tsunoda, the Japanese driver doing well to keep Alonso behind him at the chequered flag. Hadjar continues to impress, and adds a couple more points to his tally.

Colapinto had a very poor qualifying. Crashing out and giving the team a rebuilding job for the race was a great shame, as he had shown good pace up until that point. It also reinforces the reputation he earned late last year for crashing rather too much. Hopefully he can avoid that for the forthcoming races. Meanwhile, Gasly qualified fantastically but ended up taking a trip through the gravel which shoved him down the order and effectively ended his prospects of competing for points. Another rough race for the Frenchman when he should’ve scored.

It was a bit surprising to see the safety car, because Antonelli’s car failure was in a very similar place to Ocon’s. I’m not sure why a different call was made. A suspicious person might suggest it’s because it made the end of the race more exciting, but there could be other factors.

Imola Grand Prix Predictions Assessment 12m16s

My predictions for Imola were atrocious. I did call Piastri right for pole, but got the entire top three wrong. Or, to be more exact, I picked all the drivers for the podium but got all the positions wrong. I went for Piastri, Verstappen, and Norris, but the order was Verstappen, Norris, and Piastri.

Midfield points were a little better as Hadjar finished in the top 10. Gasly did not, and I wonder if he could’ve if he hadn’t gone for some rally action in the gravel.

My prediction of Sainz to finish ahead of Albon failed, due in large part to the VSC.

So, a bucketload of near misses, and two things that actually came off.

F1 2025 Standings after the Imola Grand Prix 12m56s

After the Imola Grand Prix we still have Piastri leading the title fight on 146 points. Norris is on 133 points, and Verstappen has 124 points. Russell is back on 99 points, and I think this is going to be a three rather than four driver title fight, unless Mercedes can improve rapidly.

McLaren are on 279 points, almost double the 147 of Mercedes. However, Red Bull have scored well and are on 131 points, with Ferrari on 114. 

Williams on 51 are looking very much in their own category, not challenging for race wins or podium finishes but the class of the midfield. Haas remain on 20 points, and Aston Martin stay on 14. Racing Bulls have risen to 10, and if Aston Martin don’t score soon then Hadjar might start causing them problems. Alpine are on 7 points and Sauber 6.

And so we head off to the Monaco Grand Prix, one of the most iconic circuits on the calendar. I’ve got to admit, I’m less of a fan of this track than many people. To my mind a great track needs high speeds and overtaking opportunities and Monaco has neither. But a change to the rules might shake things up this year.

Quick Look at the Circuit de Monaco 14m22s

The Monaco Grand Prix is hosted at the Circuit de Monaco, which famously runs around the streets of the principality. It’s short at just 3.3km long, which means we have 78 laps in a clockwise direction. Sometimes circuits have mixed sections and can be low or high downforce, but Monaco’s as straightforward as they come: downforce is king. This is a very low speed circuit, the antithesis of Monza. It’s also incredibly narrow, with barriers close at almost every part of the track. Errors in qualifying can easily ruin a race by putting a car down the grid on a track where passing is almost impossible.

There is just one DRS zone, between turns 19 and 1, but don’t expect that to lead to passing. However, there is one major change from last year. For 2025, Monaco has to have two pit stops unlike the usual single mandated stop. This is in a bid to stop what happened last year and to make things a bit more exciting on a strategic level.

The Last Monaco Grand Prix 15m28s

The 2024 Monaco Grand Prix had Leclerc leading Piastri on the front row, with Sainz leading Norris on row two. Behind them were Russell and Verstappen.

Leclerc held the lead at the start, and Sainz suffered a puncture with Piastri staying 2nd.

While the leader got away smoothly there was contact and calamity further back. Perez’s Red Bull was ruined when Magnussen made contact with him, with Hulkenberg ending up as collateral damage. Lap 1 also featured the two Alpine drivers, Gasly and Ocon, being less than friends. Ocon tried a clunky overtake which caused him to DNF and Gasly’s car needed repairs.

The red flag restart enabled repairs to be made, tyres to be changed, and Sainz to return to 3rd as the order was reset to before the Perez/Magnussen incident.

And that was pretty much that for the race. The entire top 10 was unchanged from the starting grid to the chequered flag.

The 2024 Monaco Grand Prix was not an exciting race by any measure. The early crash removed any semblance of strategy as pit stops were off the table. The only upside is that it prompted the shift to the two stop minimum this year which might make things more interesting.

How the season looks going into the F1 2025 Monaco GP 16m46s

Heading into Imola, the McLaren looked the best car all season long. However, Verstappen was putting in the most impressive qualifying performance and Russell was also driving consistently well. A lot of cars brought upgrades to Imola, trying to get closer to McLaren or get an edge in the midfield.

Aston Martin’s worked well, but their race strategy and luck were awful. Red Bull looked, frankly, the fastest car. Neither McLaren was able to get close to passing Verstappen. And Ferrari were perplexing, atrocious in qualifying and flying in the race. Williams maintained their very good form, although I suspect Monaco will be less to the liking of their car.

Predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix 17m27s

Predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix is usually forecasting the grid. But with two pit stops required this year it might be trickier.

Piastri was very quick last year and I think he’ll got pole and the win. It was one of the few times he outqualified Norris in 2024, same as Imola.

For 2nd place, I think Norris will be there. The McLaren was competitive last year but behind Ferrari. In 2025, I’d be surprised if Ferrari can challenge around the circuit. After the McLarens, I think Verstappen will end up in 3rd. Tough call between him and Russell, but Imola had the softest of tyres and the same tyre set, C6 being the softest, will be used in Monaco. On that basis, I think Verstappen will get more from them than Russell.

For midfield points I’m backing Ocon and Gasly. The Haas is a strange old beast but the winding streets may suit it. Gasly’s Alpine is not exactly a powerful machine but the car itself is fine, and engine power is not the most important thing around Monaco.

My extra prediction is for Ferrari to score fewer than 10 points. I’ve got a feeling that the very slow circuit will not be to their liking. However, given how bad my last couple of predictions have been maybe we’ll see a 1-2 for the Prancing Horse.

F1 News 18m56s

F1 news.

As is now becoming traditional, we’ve got some new Mohammed Ben Sulayem news. The FIA president has decided to shake up the rules a bit more after Carlos Sainz Senior indicated he might stand against MBS for the presidency. You might already be able to guess where this is going. MBS has proposed some changes to the way the governing body functions, including that there “must not be anything in the record of the candidates standing for the election as members of the presidential list that calls into question their professional integrity”.

Integrity sounds good, except that this would be monitored by the FIA’s nominations committee who would refer any ethical problems with a list of those involved in a presidential campaign to the ethics committee.

Guess who controls both those committees, following much-criticised changes to the FIA last year? If you guessed MBS then you were right.

Sainz Senior is, rather obviously, the father of Carlos Sainz, who currently drives for Williams. Would two MBS-controlled committees find that the Senior Sainz would have a conflict of interest and bar him from standing on those grounds? It’s not hard to see that happening.

There’s another electoral change, with candidates having to declare 49 rather than 21 days before the election. This is claimed to be to give the nominations committee more time to assess the 11 individuals who form a presidential team. The new time limit gives lots more scope to hunt for reasons to prevent people standing against MBS.

Just to make things even more Palpatine, MBS wants to change the way the Senate works. It’s got 16 members, and, at the moment, four of these are proposed by the president and voted on by the other 12 members. However, Ben Sulayem wants to be able to appoint the final four members without any pesky voting involved. After all, you wouldn’t want the Senate to vote the wrong way, would you?

There has been one change to the rules that is in the right direction. The Draconian penalties for drivers speaking out of turn and swearing have been reduced. Doing this twice could have led to a race ban but that is no longer the case. However, fines for swearing remain a little puritanical. And we should remember drivers can still be punished for criticising the FIA or being deemed to have violated FIA neutrality by making political, religious, or other personal statements.

One last bit of news is that this might be the last Imola Grand Prix. The contract is up, and doesn’t seem to be likely to be renewed. With rumours of a desire for another race in both Saudi Arabia and the USA, and the calendar already crammed, this is not too surprising but I imagine many fans will be sad to see a classic track leave F1.

Thank you for listening. In just a few days we’re off to the Monaco Grand Prix and it’s two mandatory stops, so hopefully it’ll be rather better than last year.



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