Miami Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Before we get to the meat of the weekend, we did have the starter (or the distraction, as you like) of the sprint.
In the end, the cars did two formation laps behind the safety car then pulled into the pits to wait for things to dry up. This also meant Tsunoda, due for a pit lane start, was able to start on the grid when the cars finally got there after another couple of laps behind the safety car. These extra formation laps ate into the sprint’s 18 laps, reduced from 19, but the track did look drier if still soggy enough for intermediate tyres.
Off the line Piastri had the better start and got the inside of the first corner. Antonelli fought it but had to go off, losing out to Piastri and also Norris and Verstappen. Further down, Lawson rose from 14th to 9th and Alonso got himself into 8th from 10th.
The main battle on-track was Ocon in 12th defending against Sainz in 13th. Good, close battle, with Sainz occasionally able to get ahead only for Ocon to re-take the place.
The track was drying rapidly enough that on lap 11 Tsunoda dove into the pits for dry tyres. The next lap saw Hamilton, Sainz, and Stroll do likewise.
Lap 12 also saw Norris, who had been closing the 3s gap to Piastri, get it to within DRS zone, but the Aussie was able to keep him behind. Ironically, this would end up helping Norris a lot.
There was a very unsafe release on lap 13 for Verstappen, who crashed into Antonelli. This damaged the Red Bull’s front wing, stopped Antonelli changing his tyres (he did well to avoid hitting any mechanics given the shunt) and got the Dutchman a 10s penalty. Not his fault, of course, but he was badly let down by his Red Bull pit crew.
Piastri pitted the next lap, which also saw double waved yellows for Sainz who hit the wall, ruined his rear left tyre, and trundled back to the pits to retire. On-track, Hamilton was really rather fast and got past Verstappen easily.
Lap 15 saw Norris enjoy great luck in Miami for the second year running. His failure to pass Piastri and their proximity on-track meant he had to wait another lap for his pit stop. And Norris got a safety car for his, slowing the racing down and enabling him to emerge in 1st ahead of Piastri.
The safety car was brought about by Alonso’s terrible 2025 bad luck, as he got spun around by Lawson and put into a wall. Once again, the Spaniard would’ve scored had this not happened. Aston Martin fans must 2026 sees him enjoy a streak of good luck instead.
The sprint finished under the safety car, which meant Verstappen’s 10s penalty put him out of the points entirely. There were also penalties for Bearman, 5s for an unsafe release, and Lawson, 5s for causing a collision. Albon got a 5s penalty for not staying within the safety car minimum time, which cost him 4th.
When this was all shaken out, Norris got the win ahead of Piastri. Hamilton finished up 3rd, with Russell in 4th. Stroll in 5th and Tsunoda in 6th are a pair that will be glad to be on scoreboard again, with Antonelli recovering to 7th and Gasly getting the last point for 8th. While Antonelli will be disappointed his sprint result was down to an error in judgement fighting for the first corner when he should’ve let it go, and terrible luck in the pit lane. And, as Alonso has proven multiple times this year, no driver has a defence against misfortune.
Hulkenberg ended up 9th, which must be slightly galling for him and Sauber given how tough the team’s going to find scoring.
In Q1 Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, ahead of Alonso, Gasly, Stroll, and Bearman. Things were highly competitive, Hulkenberg was jus two-hundredths off Ocon in this session, yet the Frenchman would end up doing very well. Aso indicates the Aston Martin is not a happy car in Miami, emphasising how well Alonso did in the sprint qualifying.
Q2 saw Hadjar, Hamilton, Bortoleto, Doohan, and Lawson out. Lawson complained on the radio of his battery, suggesting he was down on power. Again, it was very close with Hadjar within four-hundredths of Leclerc, Ocon, and Tsunoda, all of whom reached Q3. For Ocon in particular it was a good achievement to get into the final session.
In the final part of qualifying it was looking like a McLaren versus Verstappen battle, with the possibility of Mercedes interrupting. In the end, Verstappen seized pole yet again, half a tenth ahead of Norris. He might be glad to see it’s Norris rather than Piastri joining him on the front row.
Antonelli continued to outpace his team mate, and starts 3rd ahead of Piastri. The Aussie had his biggest deficit to pole all year and should’ve been closer. More good stuff from Antonelli, and the second row of the race is identical to the sprint’s front row.
Russell had to settle for 5th, and is joined by Sainz, who has had the edge on Albon all weekend. Albon and Leclerc are row four, the Ferrari looking distinctly iffy. Ocon and Tsunoda complete the top 10.
On the straights it seems McLaren then Williams are quickest. Red Bull’s qualifying strength was mostly in the first sector.
The weather forecast at the time of writing is for thundery showers follower by heavy rain. Miami showed us yesterday that it dries relatively quickly but the initial period after heavy rain is horrendous. Update: weather forecast was changed so the race start should be sunny intervals then thundery showers. Subject to change, of course.
Norris, win
Piastri, win
The Miami Grand Prix tends to see almost everyone finish, but if the weather turns grotty then we could see numerous crashes and collisions. Under 17.5 finishers classified is 2.75 on Ladbrokes, with under 18.5 at 1.57, and under 16.5 at 6. The two longer odds bets are worth considering, with an eye on the weather.
Norris is a lucky sod in Miami. He was in the race last year, and in the sprint this year. Will it continue? Maybe. He’s tied with Verstappen at 2.6 to win, but given the risk of both Verstappen and Piastri (plus rain) I’m not inclined to bet at those odds.
Piastri was quicker than Norris in the sprint, although conditions may be otherwise in the race. He is better wheel-to-wheel which could make the difference. Worth noting towards the end of the inters stint that Norris was clearly better at keeping his tyres alive. His odds are 4 with Ladbrokes, and 4.9 with Betfair. I’m somewhat tempted to back him and hedge.
Alonso, not to be classified, 6
Alonso’s a great driver. But his luck this year has been appalling. Every time he would’ve scored he’s suffered a DNF that wasn’t his fault (in Australia it was wet plus gravel on the track), plus a couple of 11th places. Alonso starts down in 17th, so there’s a reasonable chance of a lap 1 entanglement, plus if he’s well out of the points then the time might be more inclined to retire him as a precaution to spare mileage.
Nothing really stand out, but bets on Piastri for the win, few classified finishers, and Alonso’s awful luck continuing are all fairly appealing. So, in a fit of indecisive cowardice (and not wanting three full-sized bets given how bad my luck/judgement has been so far this year) I’m splitting one stake evenly three ways between the following:
Piastri win (5.1, hedged at evens, Betfair Exchange)
Alonso not to be classified (6.5, boosted Ladbrokes)
Under 17.5 classified finishers (2.8, boosted Ladbrokes)
[For the record, this will count as one bet.]
Let’s hope the race is as eventful as the sprint, and has the same number failing to finish.
Morris
Sprint
Antonelli had done very well to get himself pole but right behind him were the three men vying for the title. He also wasn’t helped by the fact it chucked it down right before the sprint was due to start, which led Leclerc to crash on his way to the grid.In the end, the cars did two formation laps behind the safety car then pulled into the pits to wait for things to dry up. This also meant Tsunoda, due for a pit lane start, was able to start on the grid when the cars finally got there after another couple of laps behind the safety car. These extra formation laps ate into the sprint’s 18 laps, reduced from 19, but the track did look drier if still soggy enough for intermediate tyres.
Off the line Piastri had the better start and got the inside of the first corner. Antonelli fought it but had to go off, losing out to Piastri and also Norris and Verstappen. Further down, Lawson rose from 14th to 9th and Alonso got himself into 8th from 10th.
The main battle on-track was Ocon in 12th defending against Sainz in 13th. Good, close battle, with Sainz occasionally able to get ahead only for Ocon to re-take the place.
The track was drying rapidly enough that on lap 11 Tsunoda dove into the pits for dry tyres. The next lap saw Hamilton, Sainz, and Stroll do likewise.
Lap 12 also saw Norris, who had been closing the 3s gap to Piastri, get it to within DRS zone, but the Aussie was able to keep him behind. Ironically, this would end up helping Norris a lot.
There was a very unsafe release on lap 13 for Verstappen, who crashed into Antonelli. This damaged the Red Bull’s front wing, stopped Antonelli changing his tyres (he did well to avoid hitting any mechanics given the shunt) and got the Dutchman a 10s penalty. Not his fault, of course, but he was badly let down by his Red Bull pit crew.
Piastri pitted the next lap, which also saw double waved yellows for Sainz who hit the wall, ruined his rear left tyre, and trundled back to the pits to retire. On-track, Hamilton was really rather fast and got past Verstappen easily.
Lap 15 saw Norris enjoy great luck in Miami for the second year running. His failure to pass Piastri and their proximity on-track meant he had to wait another lap for his pit stop. And Norris got a safety car for his, slowing the racing down and enabling him to emerge in 1st ahead of Piastri.
The safety car was brought about by Alonso’s terrible 2025 bad luck, as he got spun around by Lawson and put into a wall. Once again, the Spaniard would’ve scored had this not happened. Aston Martin fans must 2026 sees him enjoy a streak of good luck instead.
The sprint finished under the safety car, which meant Verstappen’s 10s penalty put him out of the points entirely. There were also penalties for Bearman, 5s for an unsafe release, and Lawson, 5s for causing a collision. Albon got a 5s penalty for not staying within the safety car minimum time, which cost him 4th.
When this was all shaken out, Norris got the win ahead of Piastri. Hamilton finished up 3rd, with Russell in 4th. Stroll in 5th and Tsunoda in 6th are a pair that will be glad to be on scoreboard again, with Antonelli recovering to 7th and Gasly getting the last point for 8th. While Antonelli will be disappointed his sprint result was down to an error in judgement fighting for the first corner when he should’ve let it go, and terrible luck in the pit lane. And, as Alonso has proven multiple times this year, no driver has a defence against misfortune.
Hulkenberg ended up 9th, which must be slightly galling for him and Sauber given how tough the team’s going to find scoring.
Qualifying
For qualifying Leclerc, Alonso, and Sainz had their cars fully repaired. It was also nice and dry.In Q1 Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, ahead of Alonso, Gasly, Stroll, and Bearman. Things were highly competitive, Hulkenberg was jus two-hundredths off Ocon in this session, yet the Frenchman would end up doing very well. Aso indicates the Aston Martin is not a happy car in Miami, emphasising how well Alonso did in the sprint qualifying.
Q2 saw Hadjar, Hamilton, Bortoleto, Doohan, and Lawson out. Lawson complained on the radio of his battery, suggesting he was down on power. Again, it was very close with Hadjar within four-hundredths of Leclerc, Ocon, and Tsunoda, all of whom reached Q3. For Ocon in particular it was a good achievement to get into the final session.
In the final part of qualifying it was looking like a McLaren versus Verstappen battle, with the possibility of Mercedes interrupting. In the end, Verstappen seized pole yet again, half a tenth ahead of Norris. He might be glad to see it’s Norris rather than Piastri joining him on the front row.
Antonelli continued to outpace his team mate, and starts 3rd ahead of Piastri. The Aussie had his biggest deficit to pole all year and should’ve been closer. More good stuff from Antonelli, and the second row of the race is identical to the sprint’s front row.
Russell had to settle for 5th, and is joined by Sainz, who has had the edge on Albon all weekend. Albon and Leclerc are row four, the Ferrari looking distinctly iffy. Ocon and Tsunoda complete the top 10.
On the straights it seems McLaren then Williams are quickest. Red Bull’s qualifying strength was mostly in the first sector.
The weather forecast at the time of writing is for thundery showers follower by heavy rain. Miami showed us yesterday that it dries relatively quickly but the initial period after heavy rain is horrendous. Update: weather forecast was changed so the race start should be sunny intervals then thundery showers. Subject to change, of course.
Early Betting Thoughts
Relatively few cars classifiedNorris, win
Piastri, win
The Miami Grand Prix tends to see almost everyone finish, but if the weather turns grotty then we could see numerous crashes and collisions. Under 17.5 finishers classified is 2.75 on Ladbrokes, with under 18.5 at 1.57, and under 16.5 at 6. The two longer odds bets are worth considering, with an eye on the weather.
Norris is a lucky sod in Miami. He was in the race last year, and in the sprint this year. Will it continue? Maybe. He’s tied with Verstappen at 2.6 to win, but given the risk of both Verstappen and Piastri (plus rain) I’m not inclined to bet at those odds.
Piastri was quicker than Norris in the sprint, although conditions may be otherwise in the race. He is better wheel-to-wheel which could make the difference. Worth noting towards the end of the inters stint that Norris was clearly better at keeping his tyres alive. His odds are 4 with Ladbrokes, and 4.9 with Betfair. I’m somewhat tempted to back him and hedge.
Perusing the Markets
As always, I perused the markets to see if any value leapt out at me.Alonso, not to be classified, 6
Alonso’s a great driver. But his luck this year has been appalling. Every time he would’ve scored he’s suffered a DNF that wasn’t his fault (in Australia it was wet plus gravel on the track), plus a couple of 11th places. Alonso starts down in 17th, so there’s a reasonable chance of a lap 1 entanglement, plus if he’s well out of the points then the time might be more inclined to retire him as a precaution to spare mileage.
Nothing really stand out, but bets on Piastri for the win, few classified finishers, and Alonso’s awful luck continuing are all fairly appealing. So, in a fit of indecisive cowardice (and not wanting three full-sized bets given how bad my luck/judgement has been so far this year) I’m splitting one stake evenly three ways between the following:
Piastri win (5.1, hedged at evens, Betfair Exchange)
Alonso not to be classified (6.5, boosted Ladbrokes)
Under 17.5 classified finishers (2.8, boosted Ladbrokes)
[For the record, this will count as one bet.]
Let’s hope the race is as eventful as the sprint, and has the same number failing to finish.
Morris
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