Monaco Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
So, I backed Hamilton to do well in qualifying and that didn’t turn out well, and I was surprised to see how some of the grid turned out.
Q1 was a bit rubbish for Alpine as both of their drivers went out. The order was Bortoleto, Bearman, Gasly, Stroll, and Colapinto, but as Stroll has a 1 place penalty for practice nonsense he will start behind Colapinto. However, Bearman has a 10 place penalty for overtaking under red flags in practice so he will be at the back of the grid.
Q2’s eliminated drivers were Sainz, Tsunoda, Hulkenberg, Russell, and Antonelli. Neither Mercedes set a time. Antonelli crashed out in Q1 having made Q2, while Russell’s Mercedes stopped working during the session. Although they won’t be happy to be out, Sainz, Tsunoda, and Hulkenberg did pretty well.
Q3 was looking like a five way fight for pole, and Leclerc seemed the man to beat. But beaten he was, as Norris decided qualifying errors were not needed and he instead got himself pole ahead of the Monegasque driver. Piastri lines up 3rd ahead of Hamilton, but the Aussie will not be keen for the grid to be the final result as he would lose out substantially to his title rival. Verstappen could only manage 5th in the end, sharing the third row with Hadjar, who did yet another great job. Alonso’s 7th and Ocon 8th, and both must be hoping to grab some much needed points. Lawson and Albon round out the top 10, the Thai driver just ahead of his team mate.
For penalties, we’ve got a few. In addition to Stroll’s 1 place and Bearman’s 10 places for practice transgressions, Hamilton has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Verstappen. This is bad luck for the Briton who was, not for the first time, hampered by the Ferrari radio. In addition, Stroll got himself a second penalty, this time three places for impeding in qualifying (I presume this is against Gasly, the footage was not great for the Canadian). This penalty doesn’t affect anything as Bearman’s 10 places means he starts last, with Stroll just ahead of him.
The race should be dry throughout but the two mandatory pit stops could wreak strategic havoc. I think the two main approaches will be guys at the back pitting at least once right away, and most of the field holding out for a safety car and hoping to get both pit stops done cheaply. But if they all come in at the same time then being held in the pits could be very costly.
It’s also worth remembering that a red flag means a free tyre change, so teams will have that as well as a safety car in mind.
Lay Piastri, podium, 1.63 (BetEx)
The least heroic bet possible is the Monaco pole-sitter to win, but for good reason. Norris is quick and starts on pole. Passing is almost impossible. However… the two necessary pit stop rule does make me a bit wary of backing something so short. It may mean the usual leader tactic of backing up the entire pack could seriously backfire.
Laying Piastri for a podium might seem daft but if there’s an early safety car then McLaren will either double stack and cost him a lot or leave him out an extra lap trundling around. But if other teams double-stop (making both mandatory pit visits) during this period he’ll risk be shunted well down the order. And he only needs to lose one place to be off the podium. The lay figure of 1.63 is not bad, but not fantastic either.
Hadjar to win group 1, 3.5
Group 1 has just Hamilton and Alonso in it. Alonso has atrocious luck, Hamilton has Ferrari on the radio, and Hadjar starts ahead of both of them. While there’s every chance things could be a bit crazy, track position is still a very good thing to have. Downside is that the Racing Bull and Aston Martin seem even on pace whereas the Ferrari’s a lot faster. If Hamilton gets clear air and doesn’t receive any helpful radio calls he’ll get clear.
First lap leader, Norris 1.23 (BetEx)
There’s a tiny run to the first corner and it’s tight. Unless Norris leaves the handbrake on he should take it. On the flip side, he has had bad starts in the past and the odds are a bit thin.
I quite like the Piastri not to finish on the podium bet. It only takes losing one place which the 2 pit stop rule makes likelier. And he’s close enough to Norris that double-stacking (under a VSC, for example) could be a problem. He’s also been brushing walls and sliding quite a lot, which is a little unusual. But I also like the Hadjar winning group 1 bet. Hmm.
Decided to lay Piastri for the podium at 1.63. There are a few ways this can come off and, in the three races before 2024, twice the chap starting in third failed to get on the podium.
Let’s hope the race is fun, crazy, unpredictable, and profitable. In short, not at all like last year.
Morris
Q1 was a bit rubbish for Alpine as both of their drivers went out. The order was Bortoleto, Bearman, Gasly, Stroll, and Colapinto, but as Stroll has a 1 place penalty for practice nonsense he will start behind Colapinto. However, Bearman has a 10 place penalty for overtaking under red flags in practice so he will be at the back of the grid.
Q2’s eliminated drivers were Sainz, Tsunoda, Hulkenberg, Russell, and Antonelli. Neither Mercedes set a time. Antonelli crashed out in Q1 having made Q2, while Russell’s Mercedes stopped working during the session. Although they won’t be happy to be out, Sainz, Tsunoda, and Hulkenberg did pretty well.
Q3 was looking like a five way fight for pole, and Leclerc seemed the man to beat. But beaten he was, as Norris decided qualifying errors were not needed and he instead got himself pole ahead of the Monegasque driver. Piastri lines up 3rd ahead of Hamilton, but the Aussie will not be keen for the grid to be the final result as he would lose out substantially to his title rival. Verstappen could only manage 5th in the end, sharing the third row with Hadjar, who did yet another great job. Alonso’s 7th and Ocon 8th, and both must be hoping to grab some much needed points. Lawson and Albon round out the top 10, the Thai driver just ahead of his team mate.
For penalties, we’ve got a few. In addition to Stroll’s 1 place and Bearman’s 10 places for practice transgressions, Hamilton has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Verstappen. This is bad luck for the Briton who was, not for the first time, hampered by the Ferrari radio. In addition, Stroll got himself a second penalty, this time three places for impeding in qualifying (I presume this is against Gasly, the footage was not great for the Canadian). This penalty doesn’t affect anything as Bearman’s 10 places means he starts last, with Stroll just ahead of him.
The race should be dry throughout but the two mandatory pit stops could wreak strategic havoc. I think the two main approaches will be guys at the back pitting at least once right away, and most of the field holding out for a safety car and hoping to get both pit stops done cheaply. But if they all come in at the same time then being held in the pits could be very costly.
It’s also worth remembering that a red flag means a free tyre change, so teams will have that as well as a safety car in mind.
Early Betting Thoughts
Norris, win, 1.75 (Betfair Exchange)Lay Piastri, podium, 1.63 (BetEx)
The least heroic bet possible is the Monaco pole-sitter to win, but for good reason. Norris is quick and starts on pole. Passing is almost impossible. However… the two necessary pit stop rule does make me a bit wary of backing something so short. It may mean the usual leader tactic of backing up the entire pack could seriously backfire.
Laying Piastri for a podium might seem daft but if there’s an early safety car then McLaren will either double stack and cost him a lot or leave him out an extra lap trundling around. But if other teams double-stop (making both mandatory pit visits) during this period he’ll risk be shunted well down the order. And he only needs to lose one place to be off the podium. The lay figure of 1.63 is not bad, but not fantastic either.
Browsing the Market
As is written in the Strategikon, I then browsed the markets to see if any value popped up.Hadjar to win group 1, 3.5
Group 1 has just Hamilton and Alonso in it. Alonso has atrocious luck, Hamilton has Ferrari on the radio, and Hadjar starts ahead of both of them. While there’s every chance things could be a bit crazy, track position is still a very good thing to have. Downside is that the Racing Bull and Aston Martin seem even on pace whereas the Ferrari’s a lot faster. If Hamilton gets clear air and doesn’t receive any helpful radio calls he’ll get clear.
First lap leader, Norris 1.23 (BetEx)
There’s a tiny run to the first corner and it’s tight. Unless Norris leaves the handbrake on he should take it. On the flip side, he has had bad starts in the past and the odds are a bit thin.
I quite like the Piastri not to finish on the podium bet. It only takes losing one place which the 2 pit stop rule makes likelier. And he’s close enough to Norris that double-stacking (under a VSC, for example) could be a problem. He’s also been brushing walls and sliding quite a lot, which is a little unusual. But I also like the Hadjar winning group 1 bet. Hmm.
Decided to lay Piastri for the podium at 1.63. There are a few ways this can come off and, in the three races before 2024, twice the chap starting in third failed to get on the podium.
Let’s hope the race is fun, crazy, unpredictable, and profitable. In short, not at all like last year.
Morris
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