F1 2025 Spanish Grand Prix Predictions (Undercutters Ep22 transcript)

Hello, everyone. In the 22nd episode of the Undercutters podcast we’re looking at the Monaco Grand Prix result, its implications for the title, and ahead to the Spanish Grand Prix. Spain is the last of a triple header and the first race where the flexi-wing ban comes into effect.

But first, a quick reminder of what happened in Monaco and how that affects the standings.

Monaco Grand Prix Qualifying 00m30s

Qualifying matters everywhere but is especially important for the Monaco Grand Prix. This year it was disastrous for Mercedes with both their drivers reaching Q2 but failing to set a time. Antonelli crashed out at the very end of Q1, while Russell’s engine stopped working during Q2, forcing him to park in the tunnel. It was bad for Alpine too, with both their drivers out in Q1.

At the sharp end it was a mighty battle between the McLarens and Ferraris, with Norris ending up on pole ahead of Leclerc, Piastri, and Hamilton, with Verstappen only 5th. However, the Ferrari clown show radio again cost Hamilton as he ended up inadvertently impeding Verstappen and received a 3 place grid penalty that should’ve been avoided. This put him behind Verstappen, Hadjar, and Alonso. Further down the order Stroll got a pair of penalties and Bearman started last for a 10 place penalty due to overtaking under red flags in practice.

The Monaco Grand Prix 1m45s

Ferrari slapped on the rear wing from last year and it appears to have worked splendidly. On pace they were 2nd and 4th on the grid, Hamilton suffering a 3 place grid penalty to put him further back.

The big question is whether or not the two mandatory stops rule worked. The short answer is no, although it’s worth noting this was still a huge improvement on last year. It was also better, in an artificial way, than the usual Monaco procession of the race leader deliberately being as slow as possible so his tyres last until a safety car.

Instead we had two major pieces of teamwork to create space by deliberately driving slowly. Racing Bull pioneered this perfectly with Lawson holding things up for Hadjar, then Williams did this with both Sainz and Albon, each creating room for the other to make two stops then swapping back over to their original positions. Williams team principal James Vowles said it wasn’t the way he wanted to go racing, and I’d guess most people watching would agree.

And yet it was still better than a normal Monaco Grand Prix.

A problem with Lawson opening up a gap for Hadjar is that it also removed any sense of jeopardy for those ahead of him on the road, making life far more comfortable for the frontrunners.

Some things didn’t change, though. Alonso continues to have atrocious luck. He was running comfortably in the points when his engine failed him. Nobody else suffered that sort of reliability problem. Lawson finally scored, but Alonso stays with Doohan, Colapinto, and Bortoleto on zero points.

Gasly crashing out is a bit disappointing. For an incident like the one he had with Tsunoda in Saudi Arabia it can be chalked up to a racing incident but this was just his fault.

Monaco Grand Prix Predictions Assessment 3m44s

Going into Monaco the last couple of predictions had been rather rubbish. Because Ferrari qualified badly on the same tyre set in Imola and were not good in slow corners, which is what Monaco is made of, I thought they’d be terrible.

In fact, I did joke that backing Ferrari to score under 10 points could lead to a 1-2 finish. But they had a good qualifying and race.

My predictions on Piastri beating Norris in qualifying and the race were based on the Aussie doing the same last year and having a better record so far in 2025 but neither came off. I also never saw Leclerc’s pace so my guess of Verstappen on the podium was just off.

Gasly didn’t score for two reasons. Firstly, his car wasn’t very quick and, even more importantly, he smashed off half his front suspension and trundled into the pits. However, my prediction on Ocon to score points did come good, the sole patch of Delphic wisdom amid a sea of false prophecy. 

F1 2025 Standings after Monaco Grand Prix 4m47s

While the race itself was far from fantastic, the result did close things up at the sharp end of the title standings. Piastri retains the lead with 161 points but is only 3 points ahead of Norris. Verstappen lost ground on both, the slow nature of Monaco really seemed to be an unhappy place for the Red Bull, but he’s on 136 points, exactly one race win behind Piastri. 

Russell and Leclerc are on 99 and 79 points respectively, and with Mercedes chewing up their tyres and Ferrari suddenly discovering pace I would not be surprised if the Monegasque ends up ahead of the Briton. Another interesting points comparison is Antonelli on 48 and Albon on 42. Even bearing in mind the Italian’s a rookie, this is very good for Williams.

Mercedes had a dire Monaco. Driver error and reliability failing in qualifying cost them, then they ended up stuck behind the Williams when they executed their traffic jam strategy. It worked for Williams and was even tastier for Racing Bull, helping Hadjar to 6th and 15 points in total. This puts Racing Bulls up into 7th in the standings, ahead of Aston Martin.

McLaren, of course, extended their dominance to 319 points, more than double any other team. But it’s very tight behind them, with 5 points covering the next three teams. Mercedes are on 147 points, Red Bull have 143 points, and Ferrari are on 142 points. Given recent results this might be advantage Ferrari. Obviously they have a very good driver lineup and the car has recently shown good pace. Imola and Monaco are very different in terms of downforce but the Ferrari was quick at both.

The Spanish Grand Prix is the last in this European triple header, and the first race that sees the rules change on flexi-wings. Effectively, this bans the front wing from flexing, or is supposed to. We’ll see whether this has a dramatic or minimal impact but people reckon that McLaren and Mercedes might suffer, whereas Ferrari and Red Bull might make a relative gain.

Quick Look at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya 7m09s

The Spanish Grand Prix is hosted at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, and apologies to Spaniards for the pronunciation.

At 4.6km this is a shorter circuit, with 66 laps in an anti-clockwise direction. There are two DRS zones. The first is on the main straight, which is pretty long. The second is shorter and between turns 9 and 10. From the pole to turn 1 is 595m, which is a long way and could present an overtaking opportunity as we saw in Imola.

Corner speeds vary a lot, which may suit the McLaren as it seems good pretty much everywhere. Cars that have a bigger weakness, whether high, medium, or low speed corners might lose out more.

According to info from Pirelli, from 2024, the circuit is in the middle for most aspects, slightly higher on abrasion and downforce, and very high on tyre stress and lateral force. Two stops was how most went in the last race, which I’ll cover more below, but a couple including Perez and Tsunoda, made three. This was despite Pirelli bringing the hardest tyres, C1 to C3, to the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix. One reason for this is that the pit loss is much less than somewhere like Imola. There’s around a 50/50 chance of a safety car.

It’s not easy to overtake, with turn 1 being the place it might happen. This might favour teams like Williams, which are very good in a straight line.

And if you could leave a positive rating wherever you listen to this podcast that would be much appreciated as it does make a big difference.

The Last Spanish Grand Prix 8m55s

The 2024 Spanish Grand Prix had Norris on pole, ahead of Verstappen. Hamilton and Russell made row two Mercedes’ territory, with Leclerc and Sainz on a Ferrari third row. Piastri had a DNF but started 9th due to a Perez penalty.

Off the line Russell was off like a rocket and snatched the lead all the way from 4th. Verstappen passed Norris and then Russell to claim the lead, and from there he cruised to victory. Norris was unable to get past Russell, and this delay, on a circuit where passing is tough, meant he was never able to challenge Verstappen.

After the first round of pit stops the order was Verstappen leading Russell, Norris in 3rd, then Hamilton and Sainz. Verstappen built up a healthy lead, and around lap 35 Norris finally got past Russell, but it had taken him more than half the race. Norris was able to narrow the gap to Verstappen, getting it under 6s. In the final stint after the second stops, Norris looked faster, whittling the advantage of Verstappen down to just a couple of seconds. But it wasn’t enough, and the Dutchman held on for another victory, with Norris 2nd and Hamilton in 3rd.

The top four teams dominated the top eight places, but Alpine also had a good time with a double points finish, Gasly in 9th and Ocon 10th. The 2024 result in Spain also saw Hulkenberg rack up one of his many 11th place finishes that year, (he ended with 7 in total, but Alonso might beat that this year).

So, passing was tough but not quite impossible, and multiple stops opens the door to cunning strategic plans. But high tyre wear might make it rough on Mercedes. Russell suffered badly from this in Imola.

How the season looks going into the F1 2025 Spanish GP 10m46s

After the Imola Grand Prix, in which Verstappen was outright faster than either of the McLarens, there was a shift in the betting odds. For a while it had been stable with Piastri shortest, then Norris, with Verstappen a bit further back. After Imola the odds shortened on Verstappen to make him second favourite to Piastri. The odds then were Piastri on evens, Verstappen on 3.25 and Norris on 3.75.

One of the reasons for this was that Verstappen was faster than the McLarens in race trim. Even in his victory at Suzuka this wasn’t the case; he finished ahead there because of track position and it being near impossible to pass. The move from Imola to Monaco was critical for determining his chances of holding onto his title this year. The two circuits are very different, Imola has far more downforce and higher speeds, so if the Red Bull could get the win in Monaco or even be competitive with McLaren then this would make Verstappen perhaps the likeliest man to win the title.

The Red Bull wasn’t awful but it was behind both McLaren and Ferrari. I am expecting Verstappen to do better at most other tracks this year, especially those that are higher speed. Instead, it was Ferrari that was good at both Imola and Monaco. The team and drivers are almost certainly too far back to challenge for either title but they were competitive at both and that offers some hope for the future. In stark contrast, the wheels seem to be coming off Mercedes. Across both those races the team scored just 6 points.

Williams continue to be kings of the midfield and are practically in a league of one by themselves, behind the top dogs and ahead of the rest. Racing Bulls and Haas can still put in good performances. Hadjar continues to be impressive, and Lawson finally getting off the mark might do his confidence a lot of good.

Spain is important because it sees the flexi-wing ban come into effect. If this has an impact, and opinion is divided on whether it will or not, it will likely be a relative benefit for Red Bull at the expense of McLaren.

Monaco was rough for Verstappen, he lost ground to both title rivals, but he does have an advantage in that he’s a clear number 1 driver. Norris winning has revived his title prospects but he and Piastri taking points away from each other is helping Verstappen stay within touching distance. If the flexi-wing ban has a substantial impact then the Dutchman could yet retain his title.

Predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix 13m34s

It’s time for predictions. Some of these have been decent but the last couple were awful.

I think Norris will get pole in Spain. It seems his wobbly phase has ended.

And I reckon he’ll convert that to victory as well. I’ve gone for a top three of Norris, then Verstappen, with Leclerc in 3rd. The Ferrari’s started to come alive, and Leclerc is a very good qualifier.

Midfield points is always tempting to just plump for the Williams but that feels almost like cheating at this point. I’m backing Hadjar, because he’s a really quick consistent driver, and Alonso. Yes, I know, but his bad luck has to end sometime. And I hope it’s at his home race.

For my extra prediction, I’m backing Ferrari to be 2nd in the Constructors’ after the race.

F1 News 14m32s

The Madrid Grand Prix is set to join the calendar in 2026. There was a simulation video of it released a few weeks ago, and I’ve got to say it didn’t inspire confidence. I think it was the YouTuber TacticalRab that compared it to Sochi, and that struck a chord. Seemed very much a one-lane circuit, with little to no opportunities for passing. And yes, the Barcelona circuit isn’t exactly overtaking central, but still. The Madrid Grand Prix has a contract from 2026 to 2035. The current venue for the Spanish Grand Prix has a contract that ends in 2026, and I’d be slightly surprised if it got renewed given how tight the calendar is. While it’s not the greatest circuit ever, right now I think it’s likely much superior to the Madrid track.

Thanks for listening. While Monaco was a bit of a failed experiment it was at least an effort to stop a procession. Next up we have the Spanish Grand Prix, the final leg of this triple header.



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