F1 2025 Imola Grand Prix Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep20 transcript)
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Undercutters podcast. This time we’re looking ahead to Imola, the first of two races held in Italy. I’m your host Morris.
As you may have noticed with the last podcast, I’ve added a small number of sound effects, and I might start slightly altering the podcast approach so there’s more discussion about race incidents and title prospects and perhaps a more concise look at the races. I’m not going to have a title betting section every podcast but because we’re a quarter of the way into the season it’s a convenient time to have one this time.
For those who like graphs and suchlike, you can find these on my Blue Sky and Twitter accounts where I post as MorrisF1, or at morrisf1.blogspot.com, which is where I post the transcript of the podcast. And, if you enjoy listening, please leave a positive rating for the podcast wherever you listen to it, as this helps a lot.
Quick Look at the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari 1m09s
The Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari is home of the race in Imola, and I apologise to Italians for my attempted pronunciation.
It’s 4.9km in length, with the cars running anti-clockwise for 63 laps. Imola’s one of the older tracks on the calendar, and made its first F1 appearance back in 1980. The circuit’s pretty narrow, which is likely to make passing difficult. There’s just one DRS zone, running between turns 19 and 2 along what is practically a straight. There’s also a longer than usual run from the grid to the first real corner, which is turn 2, so anyone who has a bad start will get absolutely swamped. Conversely, a good start is more likely to be rewarded. The run to the first braking zone is 553m.
Imola, excepting the DRS zone, mostly has short straights and a broad range of cornering speeds. It also has a very high loss from pit stops, around 29s, which strongly encourages a one stop approach. It’s possible that rain could affect the weekend, however.
The 2024 Imola Grand Prix 2m29s
Normally I cover two of the most recent races but in 2023 the race at Imola was cancelled due to flooding.
The 2024 Imola Grand Prix had Verstappen starting on pole, ahead of Norris and Leclerc with Sainz in 4th and Piastri right behind him. Piastri had actually qualified 2nd but had received a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Magnussen.
It was a mostly straightforward race with Verstappen retaining the lead at the start and then easing away from Norris. The McLaren driver did seem faster at various times and closed up to less than a second at the end, but was unable to get himself into the lead.
Earlier in the race Leclerc had gotten very close to Norris but was likewise unable to move ahead of the British driver, who then increased the gap. With passing hard in 2024, the dirty air of 2025 might make it even more difficult.
Verstappen, Norris, and Leclerc all held the same positions on the grid and at the flag, with Piastri passing Sainz for 4th being the only shift in the top five. Hamilton rose from 8th to 6th at the expense of Russell, who pitted late to go for the fastest lap.
It was still some work for Verstappen to retain the lead, his hard tyres in the second stint seemed far better for the McLaren than the Red Bull. But the fact remains there were minimal changes at the sharp end, despite both Leclerc and Norris at times looking to have good pace.
How the season looks going into the F1 2025 GP 4m05s
The F1 2025 season has been interesting, but rather different to the high expectations of multiple teams battling for wins, like we saw in 2024. The McLaren is the best car, and is quick everywhere, but getting the fastest possible lap is proving tricky. This is why the driver with most poles is actually Verstappen, with half the races so far led by him from the start. Piastri has two and Norris just one pole. However, the dirty air seems worse than ever and at Japan this enabled Verstappen to retain his lead and win. On other circuits he was unable to convert poles to wins.
At tracks where passing is very hard, such as Hungary, Monaco, and Singapore, McLaren might find themselves on the back foot.
Verstappen and Russell have been consistent and quick, and have created challenges for McLaren in qualifying, with Antonelli starting to do the same in Miami. In the race, other teams are a step behind and scrabbling to be best of the rest. Ferrari, however, are two steps behind and have gone backwards from 2024. In Miami they were slower than the Williams, finishing behind Albon and only ahead of Sainz because his car had damage and he had a poor reaction to the end of a VSC. At slower tracks I expect the Prancing Horse to be comfortably ahead, but the fact is Williams have advanced leaps and bounds, and on a fast circuit they may sometimes be quicker.
Haas have been very hit and miss, sometimes feeling like best of the rest and sometimes nowhere. Aston Martin is now the second worst car and at Miami was outright slower than Sauber. However, they’ve earned some good points but would have more if Alonso hadn’t suffered repeated strokes of bad luck.
Racing Bulls are occasionally able to nibble into the points, although the team did their best to throw away points with some early strategy faux pas. Alpine are second to last right now, and should be higher. Gasly’s racing incident with Tsunoda in Saudi Arabia was unfortunate for both men.
Sauber are last, and only have points due to Hulkenberg’s wet weather skills and a good strategy call in Australia. But he was very close to points in the Miami sprint, finishing 9th, so if wet weather strikes again then maybe he could get a few more. And, on pace, he was ahead of both Aston Martins in the Miami Grand Prix.
To highlight just how much things have changed from pre-season expectations to now, a quarter of the way into the season, I thought it’d be interesting to see how the betting markets have evolved.
The Ladbrokes odds pre-season for the title were Norris at 3, Verstappen at 3.5, and Leclerc at 5. As a reminder for anyone not into betting, 3 means 2/1 in old money. The market view was that this would be very close between Norris and Verstappen, and Leclerc could potentially be involved as well.
And what about Piastri?
Well he wasn’t even in the top three, but I know his odds were as long as 14 with Ladbrokes, for a time. Mostly he was around the 8 mark, however. Why were his odds so long when McLaren were seen as a narrow favourite for the title?
Piastri had flashes of brilliance in 2024 but he got trounced in qualifying with Norris beating him 20 to 4. The Aussie was also inconsistent, with a very quick middle of the season but a slow start and weaker finish. This led the market to collectively consider it a certainty Norris would beat Piastri. Given the Briton finished 82 points ahead of the Aussie in 2024, it’s an understandable mistake.
However, Piastri’s been more consistent than Norris in 2025 and is qualifying very well indeed. Only Verstappen’s doing a better job in that regard, but Piastri has an advantage in the race. He’s also sharper wheel-to-wheel than Norris is.
Before the season began Norris had odds of 3 and his odds at the time of writing are 2.8. The problem for Norris is that he’s shifted from being the frontrunner to second best, because Piastri’s odds have fallen from 14 all the way down to 1.57, making him a clear favourite with the market. At the same time, Verstappen’s odds have lengthened to 8, making him not entirely out of the fight but seen as some way behind the McLarens. Russell is next but a long way behind at 34, and Leclerc’s odds are now 67, showing just how poor the Ferrari has been compared to their strong 2024 season.
As far as the Constructors’ went, pre-season it was seen as a duel between McLaren at 2.1 and Ferrari on 2.2. Right now McLaren have odds of just 1.02, and Ferrari are out at 67. Turns out totally rejigging the suspension arrangement for a single season after a strong performance the previous year wasn’t smart, something Ferrari should’ve learnt from McLaren a decade ago. Mercedes are second favourite at 26, but it’d be a brave man to bet against the papaya team here.
Predictions for the Imola Grand Prix 10m01s
And so to predictions for the Imola Grand Prix. Last year it was a rare occasion when Piastri outqualified Norris and given the Aussie’s results in 2025 I’m backing him to achieve both the pole and win. I think passing will be difficult and whoever gets on pole stands a good chance of victory, and if it’s a McLaren that’ll be near certain.
I’ve backed Verstappen to be 2nd. He’s the best qualifier this year and will not face a double-stacking problem if weather or a safety car means a quick stop is needed. Norris will, I think, end up 3rd. Another solid performance but still seeing Piastri stretch out his lead.
For midfield points, I’ve gone for both Gasly and Hadjar. Gasly’s a very good midfield driver and, if he stays out of early trouble, I think he has a solid shot at points. Hadjar has been the most surprising rookie for me, and, along with Antonelli, the most impressive (although Bortoleto’s hard to assess because the Sauber’s so poor).
As for my extra prediction, I’ve backed Sainz to finish ahead of Albon. The Spaniard had a slow start at Williams but now seems up to speed. If he qualifies ahead then I expect him to stay there.
F1 News 11m23s
F1 news.
Heading into Imola there’s a lot of news, and we start with Alpine. Team Principal Oliver Oakes has departed after just 10 months in charge. For those relatively new to F1, team principals tend to last way longer than team bosses in other sports, such as football. Christian Horner has been in charge of Red Bull since 2005, for example.
He was in a slightly odd position due to the presence of Flavio Briatore. Briatore had been banned for life from Formula 1 due to his role as team principal of Renault, which was Alpine in an earlier guise. In the 2008 Singapore Grand Prix it turned out Nelson Piquet Junior, a Renault driver, deliberately crashed to help his team mate, Fernando Alonso, win the race. However, two years later Briatore got the ban overturned by a French court.
More recently, he’s been in Alpine acting as an advisor, and is seen very much as the real power there. He’s also a strong backer of Franco Colapinto.
The departure of Oakes makes him the latest in a string of short-lived team principals at Alpine. His predecessor Bruno Famin also lasted less than a year, and the previous boss, Otmar Szafnauer, was there for only 17 months. When compared to the stability of teams like Mercedes, McLaren, and Red Bull, it looks like Alpine are all over the place. We also saw this with incompetence at keeping hold of drivers, most obviously with Piastri slipping through their fingers three years ago.
It’s worth adding that there are some allegations floating around involving Oakes’ brother and the father of ex-F1 driver Nikita Mazepin. William Oakes has been charged with transferring criminal property, the arrest occurring in Northamptonshire close to the Hitech GP factory. So the resignation on personal grounds appears to be genuine rather than an excuse to cover up yet another Alpine game of musical chairs.
Briatore taking over the duties of team principal, although officially he’s still just an executive advisor, came very shortly before the most obvious news of the year: Jack Doohan is out and Franco Colapinto is going to drive in his seat. But there is a slight twist. Colapinto has been guaranteed the seat in the next five race weekends, with the team describing this as rotating the seat. That sounds like it’s possible they’ll shift the seat between him and Doohan for the rest of the season. We’ll see whether this leads to Doohan driving for the third quarter of the season and Colapinto for the fourth, or if the Argentine driver ends up keeping the seat for the rest of the season. My own suspicion is that Colapinto will end up in the seat permanently, and the ‘rotating’ language is just being used to try and frame it in a more PR-friendly way.
Doohan showed some flashes of pace, but also made some errors. Given he’s new and was immediately under immense pressure due to Colapinto’s shadow looming over him, it’s not surprising he made some mistakes. Doohan is one of four drivers currently without points, but as another is Alonso that does prove points don’t always reflect talent.
The obvious question to ask is: why didn’t Alpine simply hire Colapinto instead of Doohan? The answer is to do with both the timing and seeming availability of drivers.
In 2024, Colapinto replaced Logan Sargeant at Williams in a mid-season driver change. The Argentine driver was there for the last nine races, and hit the ground running with a 12th and 8th in his first two races. The next three were also impressive, with finishing positions of 11th, 10th, and 12th. As a newcomer in a highly competitive midfield, this was good by itself. But it was also surprisingly positive compared to the highly regarded Albon, who has been driving for Williams for quite a while and was entirely familiar with the 2024 car. In those five races, from Italy to Mexico, Colapinto finished between 8th and 12th. While Albon’s best results were better, with a 7th and 9th , he also had 16th and two DNFs. Colapinto was looking very, very good indeed. He was a hot prospect for 2025, and was in talks with teams, reportedly including Red Bull, to start the next season.
It was in August 2024 that Doohan was named Alpine’s replacement for Ocon in 2025. This was before Colapinto even made his debut, on 1st September in Italy. Alpine had little chance of a late change, even if that were possible, because Colapinto was in talks elsewhere. And then in the last four races Colapinto’s wheels fell off. He had three DNFs and a solitary finish of 14th. It’s only fair to point out there were extenuating circumstances, notably the incredibly wet Brazilian Grand Prix, but the shine had come off and Colapinto was once more a free agent.
And so we end up with this weird situation of Doohan getting just six races, and Colapinto apparently being guaranteed only five. After those five are done I’d be surprised if he were replaced, but time will tell.
Alpine are not the only team with a change at the top. Audi are joining the grid in 2026, but have just had their second reshuffle. This isn’t inspiring confidence in a stable launch. Adam Baker, the chief executive officer, has left the firm. He’s being replaced by Mattia Binotto, formerly chief operating and technical officer and, some years ago, short-lived team principal at Ferrari. Audi had previously hired Andreas Seidl from McLaren at the end of 2022, but Seidl left when Binotto arrived in July 2024.
Binotto isn’t becoming CEO despite taking over from Baker, his role is simply head of the Audi F1 project. The team principal at Audi remains Jonathan Wheatley. Binotto will be responsible for designing and manufacturing, with Wheatley in charge of the team as it goes racing.
Unusually for an F1 team, Audi doesn’t have a base in England. There’s a tiny corner of the UK where most teams are located, which makes recruiting really easy as it’s convenient for engineers to swap teams without moving house or uprooting families. However, Audi are looking to add a UK base to their German and Switzerland locations.
There’s even more FIA and Mohammed Ben Sulayem news. MBS, as he’s better known, has not exactly been popular lately and there’s been murmuring about someone else standing against him for a while. This is slightly unusual as FIA presidents tend to be returned unopposed. Carlos Sainz Senior, father of the Williams driver and a legendary rally driver himself, is considering standing for the role.
MBS has lost a lot of support amongst both F1 drivers and FIA officials. For the drivers, he’s an interfering busybody, most obvious in the ban on various types of speech. On the official side of things, senior figures have both been fired and resigned in significant numbers during the reign of MBS. In addition, there have been steps taken to reduce accountability. However, it remains to be seen whether Sainz Senior will stand, and, if he does, how much support he’ll get. I think the average fan would much prefer to see the rally legend as president.
That’s not the end of the MBS news, though, as everyone’s favourite president has also been arguing against the cost cap. F1 teams operate with a cost cap to stop bigger teams financially steamrollering smaller ones. This helps teams who are behind to close the gap, and that’s something we’ve seen happen with Williams in this season.
MBS has described the cap as a ‘headache’ for the FIA. And so he’s considering scrapping it. However, there’s another possibility. If MBS doesn’t like the ‘headache’ of the FIA doing its duties, and everyone wants a new president, all he has to do is resign. He doesn’t have to do all the boring FIA work, and the fans and drivers get a president who isn’t trying to make the FIA his own personal fiefdom. Everybody’s happy.
Thank you for listening. It’s only a few days to the Imola Grand Prix, the first in a triple header with Monaco and Spain following shortly afterwards.
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