Imola Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Qualifying for the Imola Grand Prix was a lot longer than usual thanks to a pair of red flags in Q1. The first of these was for Tsunoda, whose car was running too low over kerbs, leading to a dramatic and alarming crash. This saw his Red Bull turned upside down and every corner of it suffered severe damage. Thankfully it rolled right side up and Tsunoda was able to walk away. The later crash was for Franco Colapinto, driving for Alpine for the first time. This was more bad news for the Argentine, who ironically ‘made it’ to Q2. Earlier in the seasion he left the pits too early following confusion regarding Sauber’s order to hold and wait, so he’s likely to get a one place grid penalty for that.
The two red flags made life difficult for the other drivers. In the end, Lawson was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Hulkenberg, Ocon, Bearman, and Tsunoda. Bearman was unlucky, his time was fast enough but the red flag came out moments too soon for him to make Q2.
Speaking of Q2, it was not one to enjoy for Italian fans. While Sainz put his Williams at the top of the time sheet, Aston Martin had a cunning plan: they used the medium tyre. Notionally slower than the C6 soft, it was way more resilient and could be pushed without fear of turning to dust. This allowed both Aston Martins, which have upgrades that seem to be working well, to escape into Q3. This put out both Ferraris. Leclerc qualified 11th, right ahead of Hamilton. Antonelli was only 13th. Bortoleto was the slowest to set a time, with Colapinto pencilled in as 15th, but likely to receive a 1 place grid penalty. This is pretty awful for Ferrari with both Williams, both Aston Martins, and Hadjar all reaching Q3.
In the final session it was as looking like a three way battle between Verstappen and the McLarens. Piastri’s second run was enough to seize pole ahead of Verstappen, and we might see quite the battle between those two off the line. Russell also joined the party, slipping into 3rd right ahead of Norris. If he’s not careful, Norris might find McLaren overtly backing Piastri sooner or later to reduce the risk of Verstappen.
The third row is Spanish territory, Alonso leading Sainz and highlighting how well Aston Martin’s upgrades are working. This is good news in 2025 but perhaps fantastic news for 2026 as it suggests a strong correlation between testing data and the real world. In turn, this means the simulations for the 2026 car should give an accurate picture and enable Adrian Newey to design a quick car. Albon leads Stroll on the fourth row, with Hadjar and Gasly giving row five a little je ne sais quoi.
Incidentally, Russell and the two Aston Martins had medium tyres on for their second Q3 runs, which worked rather well.
As expected, Colapinto was confirmed to have a 1 place grid penalty for his early departure from the pits as a red flag period was coming to an end.
Alonso, top 6
Passing’s been hard this year, and Imola’s a narrow place. There’s a long run to the first corner but not a huge number of overtaking opportunities otherwise. Unhelpfully, the pitting cost is very high, about 10s more than usual, so expect single stops all day long. The very soft C6 tyre was brought to to try and encourage more alternative strategies but as it barely lasted a lap in qualifying I doubt it’ll be used by anyone in the race. So, even though Russell’s not as quick on pure race pace as Norris, he may yet stay ahead (or even move up the standings off the line if he starts well or Piastri/Verstappen make contact). He’s 1.85 for a podium (evens over on Betfair) which is a bit shorter than I thought he might be. Still might not be a bad idea but not outstanding odds.
The Aston Martin upgrades worked very nicely in qualifying, with them on pace with Williams (Alonso was a thousandth ahead of Sainz). He starts in P5. Alonso is 2.4 to be top 6, which might not be bad value. Antonelli and Tsunoda are a long way down the order, and the Ferrari seems woeful. However, Williams could be a threat, although in the event of a safety car Alonso should have pitting priority over Stroll. Also, Alonso has had abysmal luck this year.
Stroll to win group 3, 4
Stroll’s a pretty rubbish qualifier but he still made Q3 and finished ahead of Hadjar and Gasly. The Aston Martin looks a clearly quicker car than either the Racing Bull or the Alpine and the Canadian’s had a solid record this season when it comes to finishing well. Antonelli is also in this group but he may struggle with traffic to get in a position to challenge the others. The downside is that because Hadjar and Gasly are right behind Stroll, if he starts badly that’s going to be the bet almost certainly ruined.
Alonso, win group 2, 6
Alonso is grouped with Sainz, Albon, Leclerc, and Hamilton. The Ferraris looked dreadful in qualifying, and I’m not sure they’ll be much better in the race. The Williams could be a threat (Albon is also 6, though he starts two places further back). This is pretty tempting. If Alonso can retain his place at the start I think he’s got a solid shot of staying there.
Alonso to beat Hamilton, evens
You may’ve spotted a pattern here. Alonso starts 5th, Hamilton starts 12th. All else being equal on a track where passing is very rough and a single stop is expected Alonso should win this handily.
Russell, win each way, 15
Russell starts 3rd and has been highly consistent this year. A good start or one (or both) of the top two screwing up by being slow or making contact could see him get ahead on lap 1 and stay there. My concern is his car probably lacks the pace so if others get clear air then a pit stop pass could be effected, and if things stay as is off the line then this won’t come off (top 2 pay out).
The Alonso to beat Hamilton bet at evens is something I’m backing every day of the week. The car’s faster and he starts 8 places higher. Unless bad luck strikes again this should come off.
As a second bet, I’m splitting one stake so the payout’s roughly the same between Alonso and Stroll each winning their groups (38%/62%). Aston Martin’s pace surprised me and I think this is leading to them being underestimated. Hope so, anyway.
With boosted odds, that’s Alonso to beat Hamilton at 2.05, Alonso to win group 2 at 6.5, and Stroll to win group 3 at 4.1
Morris
The two red flags made life difficult for the other drivers. In the end, Lawson was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Hulkenberg, Ocon, Bearman, and Tsunoda. Bearman was unlucky, his time was fast enough but the red flag came out moments too soon for him to make Q2.
Speaking of Q2, it was not one to enjoy for Italian fans. While Sainz put his Williams at the top of the time sheet, Aston Martin had a cunning plan: they used the medium tyre. Notionally slower than the C6 soft, it was way more resilient and could be pushed without fear of turning to dust. This allowed both Aston Martins, which have upgrades that seem to be working well, to escape into Q3. This put out both Ferraris. Leclerc qualified 11th, right ahead of Hamilton. Antonelli was only 13th. Bortoleto was the slowest to set a time, with Colapinto pencilled in as 15th, but likely to receive a 1 place grid penalty. This is pretty awful for Ferrari with both Williams, both Aston Martins, and Hadjar all reaching Q3.
In the final session it was as looking like a three way battle between Verstappen and the McLarens. Piastri’s second run was enough to seize pole ahead of Verstappen, and we might see quite the battle between those two off the line. Russell also joined the party, slipping into 3rd right ahead of Norris. If he’s not careful, Norris might find McLaren overtly backing Piastri sooner or later to reduce the risk of Verstappen.
The third row is Spanish territory, Alonso leading Sainz and highlighting how well Aston Martin’s upgrades are working. This is good news in 2025 but perhaps fantastic news for 2026 as it suggests a strong correlation between testing data and the real world. In turn, this means the simulations for the 2026 car should give an accurate picture and enable Adrian Newey to design a quick car. Albon leads Stroll on the fourth row, with Hadjar and Gasly giving row five a little je ne sais quoi.
Incidentally, Russell and the two Aston Martins had medium tyres on for their second Q3 runs, which worked rather well.
As expected, Colapinto was confirmed to have a 1 place grid penalty for his early departure from the pits as a red flag period was coming to an end.
Early Betting Thoughts
Russell podiumAlonso, top 6
Passing’s been hard this year, and Imola’s a narrow place. There’s a long run to the first corner but not a huge number of overtaking opportunities otherwise. Unhelpfully, the pitting cost is very high, about 10s more than usual, so expect single stops all day long. The very soft C6 tyre was brought to to try and encourage more alternative strategies but as it barely lasted a lap in qualifying I doubt it’ll be used by anyone in the race. So, even though Russell’s not as quick on pure race pace as Norris, he may yet stay ahead (or even move up the standings off the line if he starts well or Piastri/Verstappen make contact). He’s 1.85 for a podium (evens over on Betfair) which is a bit shorter than I thought he might be. Still might not be a bad idea but not outstanding odds.
The Aston Martin upgrades worked very nicely in qualifying, with them on pace with Williams (Alonso was a thousandth ahead of Sainz). He starts in P5. Alonso is 2.4 to be top 6, which might not be bad value. Antonelli and Tsunoda are a long way down the order, and the Ferrari seems woeful. However, Williams could be a threat, although in the event of a safety car Alonso should have pitting priority over Stroll. Also, Alonso has had abysmal luck this year.
Perusing the Markets
As is the way of things, I then browsed the markets in the hunt for value.Stroll to win group 3, 4
Stroll’s a pretty rubbish qualifier but he still made Q3 and finished ahead of Hadjar and Gasly. The Aston Martin looks a clearly quicker car than either the Racing Bull or the Alpine and the Canadian’s had a solid record this season when it comes to finishing well. Antonelli is also in this group but he may struggle with traffic to get in a position to challenge the others. The downside is that because Hadjar and Gasly are right behind Stroll, if he starts badly that’s going to be the bet almost certainly ruined.
Alonso, win group 2, 6
Alonso is grouped with Sainz, Albon, Leclerc, and Hamilton. The Ferraris looked dreadful in qualifying, and I’m not sure they’ll be much better in the race. The Williams could be a threat (Albon is also 6, though he starts two places further back). This is pretty tempting. If Alonso can retain his place at the start I think he’s got a solid shot of staying there.
Alonso to beat Hamilton, evens
You may’ve spotted a pattern here. Alonso starts 5th, Hamilton starts 12th. All else being equal on a track where passing is very rough and a single stop is expected Alonso should win this handily.
Russell, win each way, 15
Russell starts 3rd and has been highly consistent this year. A good start or one (or both) of the top two screwing up by being slow or making contact could see him get ahead on lap 1 and stay there. My concern is his car probably lacks the pace so if others get clear air then a pit stop pass could be effected, and if things stay as is off the line then this won’t come off (top 2 pay out).
The Alonso to beat Hamilton bet at evens is something I’m backing every day of the week. The car’s faster and he starts 8 places higher. Unless bad luck strikes again this should come off.
As a second bet, I’m splitting one stake so the payout’s roughly the same between Alonso and Stroll each winning their groups (38%/62%). Aston Martin’s pace surprised me and I think this is leading to them being underestimated. Hope so, anyway.
With boosted odds, that’s Alonso to beat Hamilton at 2.05, Alonso to win group 2 at 6.5, and Stroll to win group 3 at 4.1
Morris
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