Bahrain Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying
From an early morning to a late afternoon start, hence the pre-qualifying ramble being up on the Saturday rather than Sunday.
I’ve been mildly off-colour lately but seem to be recovering, so hopefully this won’t interfere with any F1-related stuff.
While various teams have brought updates most of these are minor. Ferrari are the only team to bring a major one, with a new floor that seems to be working well. Also worth noting the track is a bit rough so a two stop is thought to be the order of the day.
FP1 at Bahrain happens earlier in the day making it much hotter than qualifying or the race, so it’s not exactly representative. This session also had numerous stand-in drivers enjoying a practice session. Anyway, Norris was faster, two-tenths up on Gasly (perhaps reflecting how seriously teams took this practice), with Hamilton three-tenths down the road. Albon was next, then Ocon. Hulkenberg was 6th, a second off the ultimate pace, then came Doohan, Lawson, Tsunoda, and Piastri.
The second practice session is the most representative as it happens at the same time as both qualifying and the race. However, it’s worth noting the track evolved a lot. Piastri was a tenth and a half ahead of Norris, with Russell about four-tenths further back. It did look very much like the McLarens are the fastest. Leclerc was one-hundredth behind Russell, and two-tenths ahead of Antonelli and Hadjar. Verstappen was 7th, eight-tenths off the pace, but I’m sure he’ll be closer in qualifying. Hamilton, Bearman, and Sainz followed.
Third practice was also in hotter, earlier conditions so take the results with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, Piastri was fastest by six-tenths over Norris, a gap I expect to be way smaller for the top two come qualifying. Leclerc was a couple of tenths further back, with a similar gap to Russell and Antonelli. Gasly was a surprising 6th for Alpine, followed by Hadjar, Verstappen in 8th, with Sainz and Hamilton completing the top half of the time sheet.
Can anyone challenge the dominance of McLaren? It’s hard to see, to be honest.
Leclerc is a very good qualifier and he, or Russell, or Verstappen, might be able to pick up the pieces if Norris or Piastri screw up. We saw Verstappen edge ahead in Japanese qualifying which ultimately delivered him victory, and Russell split the McLarens in China, so it’s far from impossible.
I’m kind of tempted to have a scattergun, splitting a single stake each way on the three non-McLaren drivers I just mentioned. Their each way odds on Ladbrokes are 15 for Verstappen, and 23 each for Russell and Leclerc, balancing the split to be ahead come what may.
But the McLaren edge in both FP2 and FP3 is colossal.
Unlike the race, I only offer a qualifying tip if it’s something that stands out rather more. At the moment, this is looking like a battle for scraps behind the McLarens, unless they mess it up.
A very interesting market is Tsunoda versus Sainz (with Sainz likelier to do better, as the Red Bull is not looking tasty right now).
Unfortunately, time’s tight and the odds still hadn’t appeared an hour after FP3 finished, so no bet this qualifying. But there will be one for tomorrow's race.
Morris
I’ve been mildly off-colour lately but seem to be recovering, so hopefully this won’t interfere with any F1-related stuff.
While various teams have brought updates most of these are minor. Ferrari are the only team to bring a major one, with a new floor that seems to be working well. Also worth noting the track is a bit rough so a two stop is thought to be the order of the day.
FP1 at Bahrain happens earlier in the day making it much hotter than qualifying or the race, so it’s not exactly representative. This session also had numerous stand-in drivers enjoying a practice session. Anyway, Norris was faster, two-tenths up on Gasly (perhaps reflecting how seriously teams took this practice), with Hamilton three-tenths down the road. Albon was next, then Ocon. Hulkenberg was 6th, a second off the ultimate pace, then came Doohan, Lawson, Tsunoda, and Piastri.
The second practice session is the most representative as it happens at the same time as both qualifying and the race. However, it’s worth noting the track evolved a lot. Piastri was a tenth and a half ahead of Norris, with Russell about four-tenths further back. It did look very much like the McLarens are the fastest. Leclerc was one-hundredth behind Russell, and two-tenths ahead of Antonelli and Hadjar. Verstappen was 7th, eight-tenths off the pace, but I’m sure he’ll be closer in qualifying. Hamilton, Bearman, and Sainz followed.
Third practice was also in hotter, earlier conditions so take the results with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, Piastri was fastest by six-tenths over Norris, a gap I expect to be way smaller for the top two come qualifying. Leclerc was a couple of tenths further back, with a similar gap to Russell and Antonelli. Gasly was a surprising 6th for Alpine, followed by Hadjar, Verstappen in 8th, with Sainz and Hamilton completing the top half of the time sheet.
Can anyone challenge the dominance of McLaren? It’s hard to see, to be honest.
Leclerc is a very good qualifier and he, or Russell, or Verstappen, might be able to pick up the pieces if Norris or Piastri screw up. We saw Verstappen edge ahead in Japanese qualifying which ultimately delivered him victory, and Russell split the McLarens in China, so it’s far from impossible.
I’m kind of tempted to have a scattergun, splitting a single stake each way on the three non-McLaren drivers I just mentioned. Their each way odds on Ladbrokes are 15 for Verstappen, and 23 each for Russell and Leclerc, balancing the split to be ahead come what may.
But the McLaren edge in both FP2 and FP3 is colossal.
Unlike the race, I only offer a qualifying tip if it’s something that stands out rather more. At the moment, this is looking like a battle for scraps behind the McLarens, unless they mess it up.
A very interesting market is Tsunoda versus Sainz (with Sainz likelier to do better, as the Red Bull is not looking tasty right now).
Unfortunately, time’s tight and the odds still hadn’t appeared an hour after FP3 finished, so no bet this qualifying. But there will be one for tomorrow's race.
Morris
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