Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

While some races have been hit and miss, qualifying has almost always thrown up surprises this year. Saudi Arabia was no exception.

The Aston Martin is not looking good, so Stroll being the fastest man eliminated in Q1 is not exactly unexpected. Also eliminated was Doohan, Hulkenberg, Ocon, and Bortoleto. Of those, Ocon is perhaps most surprising, although this circuit does not seem to suit the Haas especially well.

This is backed up by Bearman being slowest in Q2. At this stage we also lost Albon, Lawson, Alonso, and Hadjar. Slightly surprised to see Hadjar outqualified by Lawson. Sainz also reached Q3 whereas Albon did not, but this was less unexpected as the Spaniard seemed to finally get on terms with his car last time out and has continued that good form this weekend.

Heading into Q3 it was, once more, looking like McLarens to lose. And, once more, they lost it. Not just the front row lockout, but Norris brought out a red flag when he clocked the wall and will start in 10th. The track is fast but there are chances to overtake, though it’s not quite as straightforward as Bahrain. Dirty air seems especially rough this year and Norris struggled in Bahrain, especially versus Leclerc who did very well to hold him up for so long.

Verstappen put in another great qualifying lap to get pole by one-hundredth of a second over Piastri. Both men are very much in the title fight, as is the driver in 3rd, George Russell, so expect a tightly contest but also cagey start. None of them will want to sacrifice a chance to snatch the lead from Norris. I’m not sure if we’ve ever seen Verstappen and Piastri really go wheel-to-wheel, and we know Verstappen and Russell aren’t exactly best friends forever, so things could get very tasty.

Just as an aside, Verstappen was faster than Piastri in every qualifying session. Norris was faster than Piastri in Q1 and Q2, and pole was definitely on for the Briton.

Sharing the fourth row with Russell is Leclerc, who was two-tenths off Russell. The Monegasque did well but his car isn’t quite there. He’s two-tenths and one place ahead of Antonelli, who was a step behind Russell but did ok to put his Mercedes in 5th.

He shares the third row with Sainz, who did fantastically well to qualify so high up. It’ll be a challenge to stay there but the Spanish driver could be on for good points.

Row four is Hamilton and Tsunoda, who were separated by just three-thousandths of a second. And rounding out the top 10 were Gasly and Norris. Gasly was slowest in Q3, of those who set a time, but given his team mate is starting eight places behind him it’s still a good performance by the Frenchman.

As mentioned previously, this is anticipated to be a two stop race. There are no penalties, at the time of writing.

Early Betting Thoughts

Verstappen, win

Russell, win

Albon, points

Norris, podium

Verstappen is, surprisingly, not favourite to win. He’s 2.25, just behind Piastri’s 2. I think there’s a decent chance he ends up victorious, but I’m pretty reluctant to back such short odds, given the probability of a safety car and multiple stops.

Russell is 11 to win, same odds as Norris. Each way, I’m pretty tempted by this. He’s looked good all season and if Piastri/Verstappen clock one another he could simply inherit the lead. Plus, he’s got a team mate more likely to be in a position to help, whereas Tsunoda and Norris start further back. If you prefer the back and lay approach, he’s 16 on the Betfair exchange (but this is only for the win, not each way). The downside is that while Russell has been very good and consistent, so have both Verstappen and Piastri. Historically it’s not been Mercedes’ best track but that has also overlapped with their iffy phase of recent years. Should be a good old ding-dong at the front.

Albon was just barely off the pace in qualifying and has also been performing very well throughout the season. Advancing a single place is well within his capabilities. He’s 1.8 for points. Tight barriers and high speeds in Saudi Arabia, though, so not too tempted.

And finally, of my initial betting thoughts, will Norris climb all the way onto the podium? Potentially. But if they finish it seems the top three on the grid will be hard to beat, and he’ll have to pass, among others, Tsunoda, Hamilton, and Leclerc on the way. There is scope for strategic shenanigans, however. But we’ve seen Norris struggle in dirty air which limits the possibilities. He’s 1.8 for a podium, same odds as Russell. If the pressure really is getting to Norris then there’s no way. But even if it isn’t, that would be quite the result.

Perusing the F1 Betting Markets

Leclerc, podium, 3.5

Leclerc’s not had the greatest season but this has largely been down to the car. Hamilton did outclass him in the first sprint, but otherwise the Monegasque has been driving well. 3.5 to finish on the podium has some appeal but I do think this depends on errors or damage from those ahead of him.


Russell to beat Norris, 1.72

Again, not a fan of very short odds bets but Russell starts in 3rd and Norris 10th. While the McLaren driver has been starting well he’s also found it trickier to pass than might be anticipated. Too short to tempt, but for a free bet this might be a good pick.


Leclerc to beat Norris, 2.35

Last time out Leclerc kept Norris behind him for what felt like 10 laps despite a huge pace advantage for the McLaren and a circuit where passing was possible. Saudi Arabia should be a bit more difficult, and this is pretty appealing.

 

So, the most interesting bets for me are Russell each way at 11 (boost takes it to 12) and Leclerc to beat Norris at 2.35. I’ve gone for Russell to win each way at 12. He’s driving very well, there’s a decent chance of a safety car which could work to his advantage, and Verstappen versus Piastri could get very tasty indeed.

An alternative is to back him on Betfair for the win at 16, and then set up a hedge at something like 4 or 5.

The race starts at 6pm UK time.



Morris