Bahrain Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Qualifying for the Bahrain Grand Prix led to a highly unexpected grid, only a small part of which was due to a very late lap time deletion.

In Q1 Stroll and Bearman were the slowest of all, with Bortoleto just ahead of them. Not too surprising, as Haas seems to be quite hit and miss. Lawson also went out at this stage but at least seems more in tune with his car now. Weirdest of all to go out was the fastest man: Alexander Albon. Except he should have gone through. In Q3, the stewards finally deleted Hulkenberg’s lap, the German having reached Q2, which put him down from 15th to 16th on the grid. Albon got promoted to Q2 but the session has long since ended so he had to make do with 15th and had no chance to improve. Quite the clown show, and really not good enough from the powers that be.

Q2 also featured a crash by Ocon and a red flag. He was fine, but this did put him down in 14th, ahead of Albon, just to rub salt in the Thai driver’s wounds. Doohan had a decent lap and was the fastest man eliminated, ahead of Hadjar and Alonso.

And so to Q3, which should have been a McLaren 1-2. They had the pace for it. It was Piastri who put himself on pole position for the second time this year, a whole one and a half-tenths over Russell. The Mercedes driver did a great job, and had Leclerc a tenth and a half behind him. Antonelli was half a tenth behind Leclerc. However, both Mercedes have been hit by 1 place grid penalties because their teams released them slightly too early when the red flag ended. Seems a bit harsh, as it was a matter of seconds, but there we are.



This means the front row is Piastri and Leclerc. Russell leads row two, ahead of Gasly, whose Alpine looked and who put in a fantastic performance in qualifying. This should be the weekend the team finally gets some points.

Antonelli leads row three, ahead of Norris. The Briton screwed up his second fast run in Q3 and was four-tenths off Piastri. The McLaren has been the fastest car overall this weekend and he should’ve been on the front row. A potential concern is that it was especially good in the corners and a little slower in the straights which could make passing slightly trickier. However, the McLaren’s also been kind to its tyres this season and that could come in very handy on a track with a rougher surface, widely expected to be a two stop race.

Right behind Norris is Verstappen, whose Red Bull has not been looking good in Bahrain. Lining up alongside him is Carlos Sainz, whose 8th place on the grid is his best result for Williams and a great spot for getting some points. Hamilton, who took Sainz’s place at Ferrari, is behind him, and was six-tenths off Leclerc’s qualifying time. However, we did see this pattern last year, with weak qualifying compensated by some strong race performances so perhaps Hamilton will move up the order. Last of the top 10 was Tsunoda, who did well to make Q3 given how ropey the Red Bull seemed.

Early Betting Thoughts

Russell, win each way/podium

Norris, win each way 

Albon, points

Russell starts 3rd but was faster than Leclerc in qualifying and looked nice and quick all weekend. The main threat he faces for the podium is Norris behind, in addition to Leclerc ahead, but I think he should end up there. He’s 1.8 to get on the podium, which isn’t bad. For the win, each way, Russell has odds of 9, and is the third favourite behind the two McLarens. Even though they’ve been the top team so far, only one of the three Grands Prix to date have seen a 1-2 for McLaren. That said, Suzuka is hard for passing whereas Bahrain is not, and wet weather is what did for Piastri in Australia. The podium bet is the better deal, I think.

Speaking of Norris, he’s 6 to win, each way. This should be possible as the track is one that facilitates passing and he’s in the best car. Norris sounded pretty despondent after qualifying, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does.

Albon should’ve been higher up the order, but the very late lap time deletion for Hulkenberg shafted him. The Williams looks good but has competition from Alpine and Hadjar. Albon’s 2.75 for points from 15th, which is somewhat tempting. Not amazing, but worth considering.

Perusing the Markets

In accordance with the teachings of Thomas Aquinas I then browsed the markets for value. Here’s what caught my eye:

No Retirements, 4.75

The last three Grands Prix in Bahrain have seen zero, three, and one non-classified finishers respectively. The last race in Suzuka had zero DNFs. Note that the market is worded as no retirements, so a classified finisher who crashes out two laps from the end would make this red. Worth considering, given how things went last time. But given the probability of close racing I don’t think I’ll be backing this.

Sadly, the group markets were the only ones not up when I checked.



The choice is whether Norris or Russell is better value for the each way win. They’re 6 and 9 respectively, and start 6th and 3rd.

I pondered this for ages but in the end I have to tip Norris. He’s got the car and the pace, he just screwed up qualifying. He was faster than Piastri in the first two sessions. So, I’m backing Norris each way for the win boosted to 6.5.

I do think it’ll be a battle for second place a long way behind Piastri, but we shall see.



A rather easier piece of betting advice is that if you backed Piastri at 14, as I mentioned some time ago, and haven’t laid yet he’s 2.6 on Betfair and now is a good time to at least go all green.

Race start is 4pm UK time.



Morris