F1 2025 Japanese Grand Prix Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep14 transcript)
Hello everyone, and welcome to the 14th Undercutters podcast. I’m your host, Morris. Today we’re going to look ahead to the Japanese Grand Prix, one of the classic tracks on the F1 calendar.
If you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky at MorrisF1, or you can leave a comment on morrisf1.blogspot.com.
We’ve had two races and one sprint so far, starting in soggy Australia and moving to dry China, where dirty air made passing difficult and reduced on-track action. Teams and drivers saw fortunes vary, although some, such as Tsunoda and Alonso, had bad luck at both.
The Suzuka Circuit is not a forgiving place. There’s some run-off, but also a lot of gravel and close walls. Make a mistake and there’s a good chance a price will be paid, whether that’s time or damage. The run to the first corner is 277m.
After the first couple of corners drivers get to enjoy the S curves for the rest of sector 1. The two Degners are easy to mess up, with too much speed for the first compromising the second. One of the fastest corners on the calendar is found at the Japanese Grand Prix: 130R. After this high speed there’s a tight chicane just before the end of the lap.
Australia was really wet and China’s dirty air meant we haven’t had a huge amount of passing so far this season. Japan’s fairly narrow and lots of areas, such as the early S corners, are not great in that regard. However, a safety car is more likely than not and rain remains a possibility. Tyre degradation can be high, and we saw in the Chinese sprint how much that can affect cars.
The Japanese Grand Prix is the first of three in a row, with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia following. This triple-header follows a week off, but there’s going to be little breathing space for any team that’s lagging behind. For McLaren, they need to make hay while the sun is shining and maximise their points while they have the fastest car.
In qualifying, Red Bull had secured a 1-2, with Verstappen on pole and Perez right beside him. Behind were best friends Norris and Sainz, then Alonso and Piastri. The top 10 was completed by Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, and Tsunoda.
The first lap saw a red flag from a Ricciardo and Albon collision at turn 3. The race had been thought of as a two-stopper, but some took advantage of the red flag to slap on some new tyres. On the restart, Verstappen retained the lead and rapidly escaped DRS from Perez.
Norris was among the earliest pitters, Verstappen stopping a little later which allowed Leclerc to briefly inherit the lead. It wasn’t long until the Dutchman passed the Monegasque driver to retake his position in 1st, and Verstappen had never looked under threat.
The early stop for Norris was looking like a mistake, however, as he was 4th on the road but those behind him had fresh tyres with which to push. Sainz duly passed Norris and then Leclerc did likewise, meaning both Ferraris improved on their grid slots while Norris lost out to them. At the front, it was plain sailing for Red Bull with Verstappen leading Perez in a 1-2. Alonso ended up 6th, making the most of the Aston Martin’s early season pace, while Russell managed 7th having passed Piastri late on. Piastri ended up 8th, and had older tyres while Russell’s newer ones gave him the edge. Hamilton was behind the Aussie by just over a second, with Tsunoda scoring the final point in his home race.
Differing strategies due to the early red flag presenting a tyre change possibility played a role here, with Ferrari’s fresher tyres late on enabling Sainz to pass Norris and Leclerc to retain his advantage over the British driver. Likewise, Piastri lost out with older tyres, to the benefit of Russell.
The 2023 season was a victory tour for Red Bull and Verstappen. The Dutchman started on pole, but with Piastri alongside him. The second row was Norris and Leclerc, while Perez was only 5th, sharing row three with Sainz. Hamilton and Russell followed, while Tsunoda and Alonso completed the top 10. This race was held in September, unlike the April timing of the 2024 and 2025 races.
The McLaren pair tried their best off the line but Verstappen defended well to keep his lead. After this it was pretty much business as usual for the Red Bull driver, who handled numerous safety car and VSC periods to ease his way to yet another victory, which also secured the 2023 Constructors’ title for Red Bull.
The start was less lovely for Piastri, who was passed by Norris. The British driver was unable to make a dent in Verstappen’s race but was able to pull away from his team mate. A VSC pit stop saw Piastri undercut his way ahead but the team then swapped positions. In 2025, it would be surprising if a similar call were made, but perhaps we’ll find out.
The start was also dramatic further back, with Ocon, Zhou, Bottas, and Albon all colliding and having to pit for repairs. The debris across the track brought out the first safety car.
Later on, Perez locked up, hit Magnussen, and suffered sufficient damage he had to retire the car.
Once again, this was mostly seen as a two-stop race, with one exception being Russell. However, this left him vulnerable to Leclerc, who had fresher tyres and, just like McLaren, the Mercedes team issued an instruction to Russell to let his faster team mate past. Sainz’s better tyres also enabled him to pass Russell, but this slump down the order into 7th did still mean an improvement from his starting place of 8th. Alonso was best of the rest in Japan, as he was for much of 2023, and was followed by the Alpine pair of Ocon and Gasly.
It’s interesting that both those races were seen as two-stoppers, but with the complicating factors of a red flag in 2024 and numerous safety car/VSC periods in 2023 allowing for a different approach to be taken. Alonso was unimpressed to be stopped early in 2023, something that would be mirrored by Norris in 2024. Tyre wear could be very important here, which might bode well for McLaren in 2025. Going for a contrary strategy could see a driver helpless against those on fresher tyres. But there are also plenty of safety cars, and in that scenario there’s the chance both to minimise time loss from a pit stop, or perhaps to cross the line under a safety car with older tyres.
I don’t think the latter scenario is too likely. We’re early in the season but already it looks like race control wants a minimal number of red flags and safety cars.
The extra prediction for the Japanese Grand Prix is that Lawson will outqualify Tsunoda. That might seem optimistic, but only if you haven’t heard the news. Speaking of which…
Questions had been raised over Lawson’s performances, as his qualifying has been horrendous across the board. He also has zero points, while Verstappen is currently second in the title standings. Even given that, the Red Bull decision to toss Lawson overboard and replace him with Tsunoda looks especially brutal given we’re just two race weekends into the season.
This puts Tsunoda into the theoretically faster car for his home race in Japan. It remains to be seen whether he or Lawson will have the better weekend. The Kiwi will be driving for Racing Bulls and will probably have his best race weekend of the season so far.
Lawson is far from the first Red Bull driver to have a short time in the seat, although two races is a new record. Gasly and Albon both got turfed out after short stints, and while Perez lasted longer he was also axed after performing poorly in 2024. However, there is something they all have in common: all are good drivers. All struggled horrendously in a car specifically designed for and around Verstappen’s preferred driving style. Albon has spoken about how it feels similar to playing a videogame with all the settings turned up to the maximum, making it very easy to get things wrong.
Lawson performed really well at RB when he joined it briefly in 2023, standing in for Ricciardo. He also did a decent job in 2024. And yet at Red Bull he’s been the worst qualifier on the grid and is one of half a dozen drivers not to score. But the others have the excuse of bad luck or significantly slower cars. The biggest points gap on the grid right now is between Verstappen and Lawson, at 36 points. But this was also true of Verstappen and his team mate at the end of 2024, when the Dutchman had 437 points and finished 1st, whilst Perez had 152 points and finished 8th.
This is not a Lawson problem. It’s a Red Bull problem. And even Verstappen’s complaining about the car being difficult to drive, and seems to have rather a lot of sympathy with Lawson. Instead of listening to feedback from drivers like Gasly, Albon, or even the more experienced likes of Perez, the team would rather axe a driver than try and improve the car to make it easier to drive.
Will Tsunoda do better than Lawson? I think there’s a high chance of that, certainly in qualifying where escaping Q1 would be a large step up. But whether he can get into the points remains to be seen. Lawson was over a minute behind Verstappen in China, and, but for disqualifications for Ferrari and Gasly, would’ve been 15th.
I do think Tsunoda deserves his shot. He’s beaten Ricciardo and Lawson, has become more consistent, and remains aggressive and quick. But the Japanese driver might find that joining Red Bull is a rough ride. The problem the team faces isn’t finding a good second driver. They’ve had lots of those. It’s designing a car that someone who isn’t Verstappen can also drive. You might argue that the focus on Verstappen has helped to deliver multiple titles on the bounce. But remember how many Hamilton and Mercedes won, and during that time Rosberg and Bottas were both driving well too. One day, Verstappen will leave Red Bull. If they don’t change their design philosophy, they’re going to be lumbered with a car nobody on the grid can drive.
Thank you for listening. If you enjoyed this podcast please leave a positive rating and review, as doing so helps a lot.
The next podcast will be reviewing the Japanese Grand Prix and looking ahead to the Bahrain Grand Prix.
Podbean
Spotify
Amazon
Apple
If you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky at MorrisF1, or you can leave a comment on morrisf1.blogspot.com.
We’ve had two races and one sprint so far, starting in soggy Australia and moving to dry China, where dirty air made passing difficult and reduced on-track action. Teams and drivers saw fortunes vary, although some, such as Tsunoda and Alonso, had bad luck at both.
Quick Look at the Suzuka Circuit 00m 43s
The Suzuka Circuit is the home of the Japanese Grand Prix, and is the only figure 8 circuit on the calendar, with sectors two and three having a crossover. At 5.8km long, the race will feature 53 laps.The Suzuka Circuit is not a forgiving place. There’s some run-off, but also a lot of gravel and close walls. Make a mistake and there’s a good chance a price will be paid, whether that’s time or damage. The run to the first corner is 277m.
After the first couple of corners drivers get to enjoy the S curves for the rest of sector 1. The two Degners are easy to mess up, with too much speed for the first compromising the second. One of the fastest corners on the calendar is found at the Japanese Grand Prix: 130R. After this high speed there’s a tight chicane just before the end of the lap.
Australia was really wet and China’s dirty air meant we haven’t had a huge amount of passing so far this season. Japan’s fairly narrow and lots of areas, such as the early S corners, are not great in that regard. However, a safety car is more likely than not and rain remains a possibility. Tyre degradation can be high, and we saw in the Chinese sprint how much that can affect cars.
The Japanese Grand Prix is the first of three in a row, with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia following. This triple-header follows a week off, but there’s going to be little breathing space for any team that’s lagging behind. For McLaren, they need to make hay while the sun is shining and maximise their points while they have the fastest car.
Recent Races in Japan 2m 36s
The 2024 Japanese Grand Prix was the fourth race of the 2024 season, which means it was in that early part of the season when Red Bull and Verstappen were looking as dominant as they had been in 2023.In qualifying, Red Bull had secured a 1-2, with Verstappen on pole and Perez right beside him. Behind were best friends Norris and Sainz, then Alonso and Piastri. The top 10 was completed by Hamilton, Leclerc, Russell, and Tsunoda.
The first lap saw a red flag from a Ricciardo and Albon collision at turn 3. The race had been thought of as a two-stopper, but some took advantage of the red flag to slap on some new tyres. On the restart, Verstappen retained the lead and rapidly escaped DRS from Perez.
Norris was among the earliest pitters, Verstappen stopping a little later which allowed Leclerc to briefly inherit the lead. It wasn’t long until the Dutchman passed the Monegasque driver to retake his position in 1st, and Verstappen had never looked under threat.
The early stop for Norris was looking like a mistake, however, as he was 4th on the road but those behind him had fresh tyres with which to push. Sainz duly passed Norris and then Leclerc did likewise, meaning both Ferraris improved on their grid slots while Norris lost out to them. At the front, it was plain sailing for Red Bull with Verstappen leading Perez in a 1-2. Alonso ended up 6th, making the most of the Aston Martin’s early season pace, while Russell managed 7th having passed Piastri late on. Piastri ended up 8th, and had older tyres while Russell’s newer ones gave him the edge. Hamilton was behind the Aussie by just over a second, with Tsunoda scoring the final point in his home race.
Differing strategies due to the early red flag presenting a tyre change possibility played a role here, with Ferrari’s fresher tyres late on enabling Sainz to pass Norris and Leclerc to retain his advantage over the British driver. Likewise, Piastri lost out with older tyres, to the benefit of Russell.
The 2023 season was a victory tour for Red Bull and Verstappen. The Dutchman started on pole, but with Piastri alongside him. The second row was Norris and Leclerc, while Perez was only 5th, sharing row three with Sainz. Hamilton and Russell followed, while Tsunoda and Alonso completed the top 10. This race was held in September, unlike the April timing of the 2024 and 2025 races.
The McLaren pair tried their best off the line but Verstappen defended well to keep his lead. After this it was pretty much business as usual for the Red Bull driver, who handled numerous safety car and VSC periods to ease his way to yet another victory, which also secured the 2023 Constructors’ title for Red Bull.
The start was less lovely for Piastri, who was passed by Norris. The British driver was unable to make a dent in Verstappen’s race but was able to pull away from his team mate. A VSC pit stop saw Piastri undercut his way ahead but the team then swapped positions. In 2025, it would be surprising if a similar call were made, but perhaps we’ll find out.
The start was also dramatic further back, with Ocon, Zhou, Bottas, and Albon all colliding and having to pit for repairs. The debris across the track brought out the first safety car.
Later on, Perez locked up, hit Magnussen, and suffered sufficient damage he had to retire the car.
Once again, this was mostly seen as a two-stop race, with one exception being Russell. However, this left him vulnerable to Leclerc, who had fresher tyres and, just like McLaren, the Mercedes team issued an instruction to Russell to let his faster team mate past. Sainz’s better tyres also enabled him to pass Russell, but this slump down the order into 7th did still mean an improvement from his starting place of 8th. Alonso was best of the rest in Japan, as he was for much of 2023, and was followed by the Alpine pair of Ocon and Gasly.
It’s interesting that both those races were seen as two-stoppers, but with the complicating factors of a red flag in 2024 and numerous safety car/VSC periods in 2023 allowing for a different approach to be taken. Alonso was unimpressed to be stopped early in 2023, something that would be mirrored by Norris in 2024. Tyre wear could be very important here, which might bode well for McLaren in 2025. Going for a contrary strategy could see a driver helpless against those on fresher tyres. But there are also plenty of safety cars, and in that scenario there’s the chance both to minimise time loss from a pit stop, or perhaps to cross the line under a safety car with older tyres.
I don’t think the latter scenario is too likely. We’re early in the season but already it looks like race control wants a minimal number of red flags and safety cars.
Predictions for the Japanese Grand Prix 8m 23s
And so to predictions for the Japanese Grand Prix. For pole position, I think Norris has this. If he’s outdone by Piastri two races running then alarm bells are going to start ringing on his side of the garage, as qualifying was one area where he had the edge last year.
However, for the win I’m backing Piastri. The Australian tends to start better and I think he’s more ruthless wheel-to-wheel. Unlike last year, there won’t be any team orders, unless they’re going through backmarkers or on contrary strategies. My guess is Piastri will get ahead at the start and then stay there.
So I’m backing Norris for 2nd place, retaining the championship lead over Piastri, who will reduce it just a bit more. But who will be 3rd? George Russell. He split the McLarens in qualifying last time and has been 3rd in both Grands Prix to date. Russell’s driving very nicely and the Mercedes looks fast and less of a handful than some of the other top cars.
Midfield points is always interesting to consider, especially given certain driver-related news, which I’ll cover in a moment. I’m going to back Alonso, again, as he’s been driving far better than his zero points suggest. For my second pick, I think Sainz will find his form. The younger Spaniard is a very good driver and for some reason it hasn’t been clicking, yet, but when it does he will be racking up points in short order. So, a Spanish pair for points this weekend.
The extra prediction for the Japanese Grand Prix is that Lawson will outqualify Tsunoda. That might seem optimistic, but only if you haven’t heard the news. Speaking of which…
F1 News 10m 19s
F1 news.Questions had been raised over Lawson’s performances, as his qualifying has been horrendous across the board. He also has zero points, while Verstappen is currently second in the title standings. Even given that, the Red Bull decision to toss Lawson overboard and replace him with Tsunoda looks especially brutal given we’re just two race weekends into the season.
This puts Tsunoda into the theoretically faster car for his home race in Japan. It remains to be seen whether he or Lawson will have the better weekend. The Kiwi will be driving for Racing Bulls and will probably have his best race weekend of the season so far.
Lawson is far from the first Red Bull driver to have a short time in the seat, although two races is a new record. Gasly and Albon both got turfed out after short stints, and while Perez lasted longer he was also axed after performing poorly in 2024. However, there is something they all have in common: all are good drivers. All struggled horrendously in a car specifically designed for and around Verstappen’s preferred driving style. Albon has spoken about how it feels similar to playing a videogame with all the settings turned up to the maximum, making it very easy to get things wrong.
Lawson performed really well at RB when he joined it briefly in 2023, standing in for Ricciardo. He also did a decent job in 2024. And yet at Red Bull he’s been the worst qualifier on the grid and is one of half a dozen drivers not to score. But the others have the excuse of bad luck or significantly slower cars. The biggest points gap on the grid right now is between Verstappen and Lawson, at 36 points. But this was also true of Verstappen and his team mate at the end of 2024, when the Dutchman had 437 points and finished 1st, whilst Perez had 152 points and finished 8th.
This is not a Lawson problem. It’s a Red Bull problem. And even Verstappen’s complaining about the car being difficult to drive, and seems to have rather a lot of sympathy with Lawson. Instead of listening to feedback from drivers like Gasly, Albon, or even the more experienced likes of Perez, the team would rather axe a driver than try and improve the car to make it easier to drive.
Will Tsunoda do better than Lawson? I think there’s a high chance of that, certainly in qualifying where escaping Q1 would be a large step up. But whether he can get into the points remains to be seen. Lawson was over a minute behind Verstappen in China, and, but for disqualifications for Ferrari and Gasly, would’ve been 15th.
I do think Tsunoda deserves his shot. He’s beaten Ricciardo and Lawson, has become more consistent, and remains aggressive and quick. But the Japanese driver might find that joining Red Bull is a rough ride. The problem the team faces isn’t finding a good second driver. They’ve had lots of those. It’s designing a car that someone who isn’t Verstappen can also drive. You might argue that the focus on Verstappen has helped to deliver multiple titles on the bounce. But remember how many Hamilton and Mercedes won, and during that time Rosberg and Bottas were both driving well too. One day, Verstappen will leave Red Bull. If they don’t change their design philosophy, they’re going to be lumbered with a car nobody on the grid can drive.
Thank you for listening. If you enjoyed this podcast please leave a positive rating and review, as doing so helps a lot.
The next podcast will be reviewing the Japanese Grand Prix and looking ahead to the Bahrain Grand Prix.
Podbean
Spotify
Amazon
Apple
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