F1 2025 Miami Grand Prix Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep18 transcript)
Hello, everyone. This is the 18th Undercutters podcast and we’re looking ahead to the Miami Grand Prix. I’m your host, Morris, and you can find me on Blue Sky or Twitter under the name MorrisF1.
I’ve got to admit, Miami is one of the circuits I’m least fond of, although I did sleep incredibly well after watching the first race. I don’t think any country should permanently have multiple F1 races given how crammed the calendar is, and the fact the USA has three and one of them (Miami) is not good is not defensible. Anyway, we have a sprint and Grand Prix here, so let’s hope they exceed my expectations.
The Miami Grand Prix takes place at the Miami International Autodrome, and made its F1 debut in 2022.
The track is 5.4km long, with 57 laps in the race. There are three DRS zones, the first at the end of sector 3 and start of sector 1 on the grid straight, the second on the curve and straight between corners 9 and 11, and then the third on the long straight between turns 16 and 17. These are separated by a very twisty section and with dirty air seemingly especially bad this year it’s got to raise concerns about gaps opening up.
The circuit is anti-clockwise. As might be expected, passing seems likeliest at the end of each DRS zone. We’ll have to wait and see just how much impact the dirty air has here. This weekend also features a sprint on Saturday, meaning there’s just an hour of practice.
The fact it was resurfaced a few years ago means it’s very smooth, so low abrasion and not much tyre wear. I much prefer Bahrain’s approach of never resurfacing so a rougher surface develops, encouraging more stops and varying strategy. According to Pirelli’s information from 2024, the circuit is also very high for evolution, which will be important in qualifying.
The 2024 Miami Grand Prix was the sixth race of that season and marked the end of Red Bull dominance and the start of a fantastic competitive period that saw multiple times vying for wins at different races.
This had been a sprint weekend, with Verstappen securing the top grid slot and win ahead of Leclerc and Perez.
In qualifying Verstappen had pole, ahead of Leclerc, Sainz, and Perez. The third row was Norris and Piastri, with Russell and Hamilton on row four, and Hulkenberg and Tsunoda completing the top 10 on the grid.
For the race start most had opted for medium tyres, although Hamilton, Alonso, Magnussen, and Ricciardo went for the hard tyre. Bottas started on the soft tyre.
Verstappen kept his lead at the start, while Perez locked up and lost places while Piastri had a great start and shot up to 3rd from 6th on the grid.
Hulkenberg also had a good start, rising to 7th at the expense of Hamilton (who was on the hard tyre).
Piastri closed in on Leclerc and passed him, aided by DRS, and was just 2s behind Verstappen. After a few laps Hamilton’s hard tyres came good and he made his way past Hulkenberg, with the German pitting soon thereafter to swap medium for hard tyres.
Behind Verstappen and Piastri were the Ferraris, Leclerc leading Sainz, Perez, and Norris, who was close but unable to pass the Mexican. Perez and Leclerc pitted before the McLarens, as did Verstappen.
The order on the road was Piastri, Sainz, and Norris, none of whom had pitted. Piastri and Sainz came in, leaving Norris in the lead but needing to stop. And then fortune smiled on the British driver when a safety car came out, courtesy of Magnussen and Sargeant, to gift him the cheapest of stops.
This allowed Norris to emerge from the pit lane ahead of Verstappen, who had previously looked very good for the win. Leclerc was behind them but ahead of Piastri, Sainz, and Perez.
After a brief initial attack by Verstappen, Norris was able to build up a gap to secure himself a first ever win. Further down the order, Piastri and Sainz had quite the battle, with the Aussie getting ahead but later locking up and losing out to Sainz, Perez, and Hamilton.
Norris getting a first victory only last year seems a bit too recent, but it was Miami where it happened. Verstappen had to settle for 2nd with Leclerc 3rd.
Perez ended up 4th, which isn’t bad, ahead of Sainz, Hamilton, Tsunoda, Russell, Alonso, and Ocon. Piastri finished all the way back in 13th, due to needing to pit for a new front wing.
In the 2023 Miami Grand Prix it was Perez who started on pole, as a Q3 mistake put Verstappen down in 9th. Alonso joined Perez on the front row, as this was the year when Red Bull were dominant and Aston Martin were best of the rest. Behind them we had Sainz and Magnussen, Gasly and Russell, Leclerc and Ocon, then Verstappen and Bottas completing the top 10.
Grip was low due to rain between qualifying and the race.
The frontrunners went for medium tyres, while a mix of softs and hards were chosen further down the grid. Verstappen opted for the hard compound.
Off the line Perez retained the lead while Magnussen tumbled down the order, losing out to Gasly, Russell, and Leclerc on the first lap, while Bottas and Verstappen both got ahead of Ocon. Shortly thereafter, Verstappen passed Bottas.
Magnussen, Leclerc, and Verstappen were all close together and the Red Bull driver passed them both on the main straight.
Perez was only slightly moving away from Alonso at the front, with Sainz within DRS of the elder Spaniard but unable to pass. In a couple of laps Verstappen passed both Gasly and Russell, with the Frenchman then falling behind the British driver too. Verstappen then set about hunting down the top three.
Magnussen was the first man into the pits from those in the points, and many followed suit. Mostly, this was swapping the medium for the hard tyre.
Perez and Sainz pitted and Verstappen was in the lead, Alonso a few seconds behind. When Alonso pitted, he was briefly behind Sainz before, aided by DRS, he put himself back ahead. Although he had yet to pit, Verstappen was 15s ahead of Perez.
Lap 46 saw Verstappen finally pit, swapping hard for medium tyres. He was close behind Perez and within DRS on the next lap. From there, it was a piece of cake for the Dutchman, who passed his team mate to rack up another win for Red Bull and a 1-2 finish to boot.
Alonso added to his 2023 podium collection with his 3rd place, ahead of Russell, Sainz, Hamilton, Leclerc, Gasly, Ocon, and Magnussen.
While Ferrari seem adrift in both title fights they do have an improving points tally and the battle to be second behind McLaren could be pretty tight. Given their Leclerc-Hamilton driver lineup, that’s pretty poor, though. Both they and Russell really need a strong result to try and kickstart their season.
The midfield is fantastically competitive, with Sainz now seemingly up to speed with his Williams, and Haas surging upwards. Bad luck has bedevilled both Alonso and Alpine, as they really should have more points. Right now it seems the Aston Martin is perhaps second worst car, ahead of only the Sauber. Racing Bulls, meanwhile, have some decent pace but competition is so stiff for the midfield that scoring anything is an achievement. Lawson’s still not up to speed, but Hadjar’s driving very nicely.
Last time out Williams deployed the Singapore plan pioneered by Sainz in his Ferrari days to secure a double points finish, keeping Hadjar down in 10th.
F1 news.
There’s a whole raft of new regulations in 2026 which is going to be a great opportunity for teams to advance up the grid, or slide backwards. It’s widely being described as an engine formula, which means that for some this could be horrendous, but if you’ve got the best engine it could be tasty. Mercedes, Audi, and Honda might be looking good, with less confidence from Ferrari, Cadillac, and Red Bull, or so rumour has it.
But there’s a problem. Well, a few problems, but the first is that if an engine is just a mile behind then that ruins not just a season but potentially the entire regulatory period. Because of this F1 bosses have reached an agreement, in principle, to allow engine manufacturers to develop to make up a performance gap.
Incidentally, Cadillac, who join the grid in 2026, will run Ferrari engines initially but will develop its own engines by 2029. For that season, General Motors has received approval to be an F1 engine supplier.
Despite reaching an agreement to allow for development so inferior engines can catch up with the better ones there’s been no concrete decision on how this will actually work.
In addition, no agreement has been reached to alter the amount of electrical energy powering the 2026 cars. This is set to rise from 20% to 50%. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Mercedes, Audi, and Honda are all in favour of keeping the current plans. If, as speculated, these three engine manufacturers are looking good for 2026 you can see why they wouldn’t want to surrender an advantage.
There are fears that the new electrical approach will be uneven and not good for on-track racing. We’ll have to wait and see what happens but there are concerns there won’t be enough energy at some tracks, while others will have so much the new push-to-pass system won’t be as effective. This system will replace DRS, which will not exist in 2026, and is an electrical boost, a little bit like the old KERS system.
Some engine manufacturers and teams want the level of electrical power reduced in the race because of this. And, probably, because they think their own engines will lose out to manufacturers doing a better job with it.
Assuming the rumours are true, this may help out some teams a lot. Williams, for example, use Mercedes engines and have a strong driver lineup. While Audi are said to have a good engine in the works the team they inherit, Sauber, is slowest on the grid so they’ll still have much work to do. Ferrari and Red Bull are the biggest teams looking at a potential loss of performance, and if that happens Verstappen might jump ship sooner rather than later.
Haas use the Ferrari engine and so might end up going backwards. Racing Bulls will be using the same engine as Red Bull and thus facing the same potential performance shortfall.
Alpine will be using Mercedes engines from 2026 onwards, so that should see them stay at least competitive in the midfield, if not improve. Aston Martin’s moving from Mercedes to Honda, so that’s trickier to call. They do also have Newey designing the car and Alonso driving it, so there is a credible chance of a title run.
But at the sharpest end, McLaren and Mercedes should still be looking good, and might be the teams to beat in 2026.
Thanks for listening. It’s less than a week until we have the sprint and Grand Prix in Miami, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not Norris will be able to reclaim his lead in the title battle.
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I’ve got to admit, Miami is one of the circuits I’m least fond of, although I did sleep incredibly well after watching the first race. I don’t think any country should permanently have multiple F1 races given how crammed the calendar is, and the fact the USA has three and one of them (Miami) is not good is not defensible. Anyway, we have a sprint and Grand Prix here, so let’s hope they exceed my expectations.
Quick Look at the Miami International Autodrome 00m44s
The Miami Grand Prix takes place at the Miami International Autodrome, and made its F1 debut in 2022.
The track is 5.4km long, with 57 laps in the race. There are three DRS zones, the first at the end of sector 3 and start of sector 1 on the grid straight, the second on the curve and straight between corners 9 and 11, and then the third on the long straight between turns 16 and 17. These are separated by a very twisty section and with dirty air seemingly especially bad this year it’s got to raise concerns about gaps opening up.
The circuit is anti-clockwise. As might be expected, passing seems likeliest at the end of each DRS zone. We’ll have to wait and see just how much impact the dirty air has here. This weekend also features a sprint on Saturday, meaning there’s just an hour of practice.
The fact it was resurfaced a few years ago means it’s very smooth, so low abrasion and not much tyre wear. I much prefer Bahrain’s approach of never resurfacing so a rougher surface develops, encouraging more stops and varying strategy. According to Pirelli’s information from 2024, the circuit is also very high for evolution, which will be important in qualifying.
Recent Races 2m10s
The 2024 Miami Grand Prix was the sixth race of that season and marked the end of Red Bull dominance and the start of a fantastic competitive period that saw multiple times vying for wins at different races.
This had been a sprint weekend, with Verstappen securing the top grid slot and win ahead of Leclerc and Perez.
In qualifying Verstappen had pole, ahead of Leclerc, Sainz, and Perez. The third row was Norris and Piastri, with Russell and Hamilton on row four, and Hulkenberg and Tsunoda completing the top 10 on the grid.
For the race start most had opted for medium tyres, although Hamilton, Alonso, Magnussen, and Ricciardo went for the hard tyre. Bottas started on the soft tyre.
Verstappen kept his lead at the start, while Perez locked up and lost places while Piastri had a great start and shot up to 3rd from 6th on the grid.
Hulkenberg also had a good start, rising to 7th at the expense of Hamilton (who was on the hard tyre).
Piastri closed in on Leclerc and passed him, aided by DRS, and was just 2s behind Verstappen. After a few laps Hamilton’s hard tyres came good and he made his way past Hulkenberg, with the German pitting soon thereafter to swap medium for hard tyres.
Behind Verstappen and Piastri were the Ferraris, Leclerc leading Sainz, Perez, and Norris, who was close but unable to pass the Mexican. Perez and Leclerc pitted before the McLarens, as did Verstappen.
The order on the road was Piastri, Sainz, and Norris, none of whom had pitted. Piastri and Sainz came in, leaving Norris in the lead but needing to stop. And then fortune smiled on the British driver when a safety car came out, courtesy of Magnussen and Sargeant, to gift him the cheapest of stops.
This allowed Norris to emerge from the pit lane ahead of Verstappen, who had previously looked very good for the win. Leclerc was behind them but ahead of Piastri, Sainz, and Perez.
After a brief initial attack by Verstappen, Norris was able to build up a gap to secure himself a first ever win. Further down the order, Piastri and Sainz had quite the battle, with the Aussie getting ahead but later locking up and losing out to Sainz, Perez, and Hamilton.
Norris getting a first victory only last year seems a bit too recent, but it was Miami where it happened. Verstappen had to settle for 2nd with Leclerc 3rd.
Perez ended up 4th, which isn’t bad, ahead of Sainz, Hamilton, Tsunoda, Russell, Alonso, and Ocon. Piastri finished all the way back in 13th, due to needing to pit for a new front wing.
In the 2023 Miami Grand Prix it was Perez who started on pole, as a Q3 mistake put Verstappen down in 9th. Alonso joined Perez on the front row, as this was the year when Red Bull were dominant and Aston Martin were best of the rest. Behind them we had Sainz and Magnussen, Gasly and Russell, Leclerc and Ocon, then Verstappen and Bottas completing the top 10.
Grip was low due to rain between qualifying and the race.
The frontrunners went for medium tyres, while a mix of softs and hards were chosen further down the grid. Verstappen opted for the hard compound.
Off the line Perez retained the lead while Magnussen tumbled down the order, losing out to Gasly, Russell, and Leclerc on the first lap, while Bottas and Verstappen both got ahead of Ocon. Shortly thereafter, Verstappen passed Bottas.
Magnussen, Leclerc, and Verstappen were all close together and the Red Bull driver passed them both on the main straight.
Perez was only slightly moving away from Alonso at the front, with Sainz within DRS of the elder Spaniard but unable to pass. In a couple of laps Verstappen passed both Gasly and Russell, with the Frenchman then falling behind the British driver too. Verstappen then set about hunting down the top three.
Magnussen was the first man into the pits from those in the points, and many followed suit. Mostly, this was swapping the medium for the hard tyre.
Perez and Sainz pitted and Verstappen was in the lead, Alonso a few seconds behind. When Alonso pitted, he was briefly behind Sainz before, aided by DRS, he put himself back ahead. Although he had yet to pit, Verstappen was 15s ahead of Perez.
Lap 46 saw Verstappen finally pit, swapping hard for medium tyres. He was close behind Perez and within DRS on the next lap. From there, it was a piece of cake for the Dutchman, who passed his team mate to rack up another win for Red Bull and a 1-2 finish to boot.
Alonso added to his 2023 podium collection with his 3rd place, ahead of Russell, Sainz, Hamilton, Leclerc, Gasly, Ocon, and Magnussen.
How the season looks going into the 2025 Miami Grand Prix 7m36s
Heading into Miami this year, we’ve got the two McLaren drivers battling with Verstappen for the title. Russell is close enough to potentially get involved but he may be starting to get left behind. Verstappen’s helped by being a clear number one driver, and if rumours of Red Bull’s 2026 engine being ropey are true then they’re likelier to commit resources for longer in 2025 to win the title, as it might be their last for a while.While Ferrari seem adrift in both title fights they do have an improving points tally and the battle to be second behind McLaren could be pretty tight. Given their Leclerc-Hamilton driver lineup, that’s pretty poor, though. Both they and Russell really need a strong result to try and kickstart their season.
The midfield is fantastically competitive, with Sainz now seemingly up to speed with his Williams, and Haas surging upwards. Bad luck has bedevilled both Alonso and Alpine, as they really should have more points. Right now it seems the Aston Martin is perhaps second worst car, ahead of only the Sauber. Racing Bulls, meanwhile, have some decent pace but competition is so stiff for the midfield that scoring anything is an achievement. Lawson’s still not up to speed, but Hadjar’s driving very nicely.
Last time out Williams deployed the Singapore plan pioneered by Sainz in his Ferrari days to secure a double points finish, keeping Hadjar down in 10th.
Predictions for the Miami Grand Prix 9m16s
And so we come to predictions for the Miami Grand Prix.
For the sprint winner I’ve gone for Piastri. His 13th last year really doesn’t reflect his pace, for most of the race he seemed likelier than Norris to claim a win.
Because of the nature of the circuit, I think Red Bull will be competitive here. I’m backing Verstappen for both the pole and the win. He’s been driving very well all year and it’s rare for him to lose out at the start, although it did happen last time out.
I still think Piastri will do well, and get himself 2nd. And I’m backing Norris to recover himself a bit for a solid 3rd place to complete the podium.
As for midfield points, I think Gasly should secure some. He was a bit unlucky in Jeddah not to score due to the racing incident with Tsunoda and the Alpine is looking capable. I’m also going to back Bearman. The Haas looked awful in Australia but since then has been challenging Williams to be best of the rest. Bearman’s also had a slower start than Ocon but has recently been more or less at the same level.
My extra prediction for Miami is that after the weekend is done Leclerc will be closer to Russell than Russell is to the title leader. Right now Russell’s 26 points off Piastri, and Leclerc is 26 points behind Russell.
F1 News 10m48s
F1 news.
There’s a whole raft of new regulations in 2026 which is going to be a great opportunity for teams to advance up the grid, or slide backwards. It’s widely being described as an engine formula, which means that for some this could be horrendous, but if you’ve got the best engine it could be tasty. Mercedes, Audi, and Honda might be looking good, with less confidence from Ferrari, Cadillac, and Red Bull, or so rumour has it.
But there’s a problem. Well, a few problems, but the first is that if an engine is just a mile behind then that ruins not just a season but potentially the entire regulatory period. Because of this F1 bosses have reached an agreement, in principle, to allow engine manufacturers to develop to make up a performance gap.
Incidentally, Cadillac, who join the grid in 2026, will run Ferrari engines initially but will develop its own engines by 2029. For that season, General Motors has received approval to be an F1 engine supplier.
Despite reaching an agreement to allow for development so inferior engines can catch up with the better ones there’s been no concrete decision on how this will actually work.
In addition, no agreement has been reached to alter the amount of electrical energy powering the 2026 cars. This is set to rise from 20% to 50%. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Mercedes, Audi, and Honda are all in favour of keeping the current plans. If, as speculated, these three engine manufacturers are looking good for 2026 you can see why they wouldn’t want to surrender an advantage.
There are fears that the new electrical approach will be uneven and not good for on-track racing. We’ll have to wait and see what happens but there are concerns there won’t be enough energy at some tracks, while others will have so much the new push-to-pass system won’t be as effective. This system will replace DRS, which will not exist in 2026, and is an electrical boost, a little bit like the old KERS system.
Some engine manufacturers and teams want the level of electrical power reduced in the race because of this. And, probably, because they think their own engines will lose out to manufacturers doing a better job with it.
Assuming the rumours are true, this may help out some teams a lot. Williams, for example, use Mercedes engines and have a strong driver lineup. While Audi are said to have a good engine in the works the team they inherit, Sauber, is slowest on the grid so they’ll still have much work to do. Ferrari and Red Bull are the biggest teams looking at a potential loss of performance, and if that happens Verstappen might jump ship sooner rather than later.
Haas use the Ferrari engine and so might end up going backwards. Racing Bulls will be using the same engine as Red Bull and thus facing the same potential performance shortfall.
Alpine will be using Mercedes engines from 2026 onwards, so that should see them stay at least competitive in the midfield, if not improve. Aston Martin’s moving from Mercedes to Honda, so that’s trickier to call. They do also have Newey designing the car and Alonso driving it, so there is a credible chance of a title run.
But at the sharpest end, McLaren and Mercedes should still be looking good, and might be the teams to beat in 2026.
Thanks for listening. It’s less than a week until we have the sprint and Grand Prix in Miami, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not Norris will be able to reclaim his lead in the title battle.
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