Japanese Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying

There was some tiny news since the last race, which I covered in the last podcast. For those who don’t read the transcripts and haven’t been paying any attention to F1: Lawson and Tsunoda have swapped seats. There’s been much sympathy for Lawson across the grid, including from an exasperated Verstappen. Comparing the two drivers will be one of the most interesting aspects of the year.

Norris was fastest in first practice, a tenth and a half ahead of Russell, with Leclerc two and a half-tenths further back. The Monegasque was a tenth ahead of Hamilton and Verstappen, with Tsunoda another tenth slower. Alonso was just barely ahead of Hadjar, with Antonelli and Sainz rounding out the top 10. Piastri was down in 15th.

The second session saw a big Doohan crash, and some grass on fire, which is quite unusual. The grass on fire brought out the red flag (twice), and reduced running means fewer drivers setting fast laps so the times are less representative than usual. This is especially the case for Red Bull, which had medium tyres late on, whilst McLaren had the softs. There was a mix through the grid. Anyway, fastest in FP2 was Piastri, half a tenth ahead of Norris. Hadjar was third quickest but four-tenths off the pace, narrowly ahead of Hamilton, Lawson, Russell, and Leclerc. Verstappen was around a tenth off the Ferrari, and a similar margin ahead of Gasly, with Sainz in 10th, ahead of Albon.



Currently there’s an 80% chance of rain on Sunday. This is probably music to the ears of Verstappen fans.

I was sorely tempted by the each way 11 (boosted to 12) at Ladbrokes for Russell to ‘win’ qualifying, paying out a third the odds top two. I agree with the consensus that McLaren are top dogs but the car seems occasionally tricky whereas the Mercedes seems easier to get right consistently. However, we also have Verstappen and the Ferraris in the mix. So I’m not tipping anything, but if you happen to have a free bet I’d stick it on this.

I’m pretty busy on Saturday but I will do my best to get the pre-race ramble up as usual.

 

Morris

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