Japanese Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Qualifying was quite unexpected.
The two Saubers were out in Q1, Hulkenberg 16th and Bortoleto 17th. That isn’t too surprising, although Ocon leaving was a little more unexpected. Doohan could only manage 19th which, after his big crash in FP2 due to leaving the DRS open into a corner, is making this a less than fantastic weekend. And slowest of them all was Stroll, who went on a rally excursion.
The first session of qualifying also saw a couple of problems for the rookies. Antonelli was having difficulty getting heat into his tyres, leading to understeer and compromising his lap time, although he was able to escape the session. Hadjar had seatbelt problems, which is obviously bad for safety but also bad for comfort in a gentleman’s tender portions. Hopefully this can be mended for the race.
Q2 saw Gasly and Sainz the fastest men eliminated, although the Williams driver may end up further down the grid. Unfortunately, Sainz clearly blocked Hamilton on a hot lap during qualifying. He ended up with a three place grid penalty, which it not very surprising. Behind Sainz was Alonso, and then came Lawson and Tsunoda, in that order. The Japanese driver did at least escape Q1 but his high downforce approach, compared to Verstappen, didn’t allow him to beat the driver with whom he swapped seats.
Qualifying also saw a brief red flag for another grass fire. Teams will be considering the possibility of this during the race.
Heading into Q3 it seemed that McLaren were likely to get pole and probably a front row lockout, with Russell potentially there to pick up the pieces. However, Verstappen came from absolutely nowhere to claim pole from Norris by a hundredth of a second. Piastri was four-hundredths off the pace and starts 3rd, but most be annoyed because he screwed up the first sector and had the speed to claim pole by a larger margin.
From Piastri to Leclerc in 4th was almost three-tenths, with Russell just two-hundredths further back. The Briton should’ve been higher up but messed up his final run in Q3. Antonelli was two-tenths behind Russell but starts right alongside him on row three.
Hadjar did very well indeed to get into 7th, particularly considering his belt problems, while Hamilton starts 8th. Albon and Bearman round out the top 10, the Haas driver doing very nicely to beat his team mate, with Ocon out in Q1.
Rain is possible for the race, but if it happens that will reduce the risk of grass fires.
Norris/Piastri, lead lap 1
Gasly, points
Albon’s been fast all season and with the McLarens running close together with Verstappen at the start, there’s a chance of collision. On top of that, Ferrari and/or Racing Bulls might kibosh their driver’s hopes with poor strategy. Albon’s 5 to be top 6, which isn’t awful but isn’t great either.
Verstappen had a weirdly poor start in China. That might be a one-off, but if it’s a car problem then he stands a decent chance of getting passed off the line. At the time of writing he can be laid at 1.49 to lead lap 1, while Norris and Piastri can be backed, with Ladbrokes, at 3.5 and 11 respectively.
Gasly starts 11th, and was a bit unlucky to fall foul of weight in China. But for that, he would’ve already scored this year. He’s 2.2 for points, which isn’t fantastic, or terrible.
As usual, I perused the markets to see what else leapt out at me.
Albon, win group 3, 2.87
The only other drivers in group 3 are Tsunoda and Hadjar. I think Hadjar stands a good chance of being damaged by team strategy, the Williams looks good, and Tsunoda might be too far back in 15th to make up the ground.
I’ve backed Albon to beat Hadjar and Tsunoda at 2.87. Pace is similar but Albon’s delivered at every race so far.
Race start is 6am UK time.
Morris
The two Saubers were out in Q1, Hulkenberg 16th and Bortoleto 17th. That isn’t too surprising, although Ocon leaving was a little more unexpected. Doohan could only manage 19th which, after his big crash in FP2 due to leaving the DRS open into a corner, is making this a less than fantastic weekend. And slowest of them all was Stroll, who went on a rally excursion.
The first session of qualifying also saw a couple of problems for the rookies. Antonelli was having difficulty getting heat into his tyres, leading to understeer and compromising his lap time, although he was able to escape the session. Hadjar had seatbelt problems, which is obviously bad for safety but also bad for comfort in a gentleman’s tender portions. Hopefully this can be mended for the race.
Q2 saw Gasly and Sainz the fastest men eliminated, although the Williams driver may end up further down the grid. Unfortunately, Sainz clearly blocked Hamilton on a hot lap during qualifying. He ended up with a three place grid penalty, which it not very surprising. Behind Sainz was Alonso, and then came Lawson and Tsunoda, in that order. The Japanese driver did at least escape Q1 but his high downforce approach, compared to Verstappen, didn’t allow him to beat the driver with whom he swapped seats.
Qualifying also saw a brief red flag for another grass fire. Teams will be considering the possibility of this during the race.
Heading into Q3 it seemed that McLaren were likely to get pole and probably a front row lockout, with Russell potentially there to pick up the pieces. However, Verstappen came from absolutely nowhere to claim pole from Norris by a hundredth of a second. Piastri was four-hundredths off the pace and starts 3rd, but most be annoyed because he screwed up the first sector and had the speed to claim pole by a larger margin.
From Piastri to Leclerc in 4th was almost three-tenths, with Russell just two-hundredths further back. The Briton should’ve been higher up but messed up his final run in Q3. Antonelli was two-tenths behind Russell but starts right alongside him on row three.
Hadjar did very well indeed to get into 7th, particularly considering his belt problems, while Hamilton starts 8th. Albon and Bearman round out the top 10, the Haas driver doing very nicely to beat his team mate, with Ocon out in Q1.
Rain is possible for the race, but if it happens that will reduce the risk of grass fires.
Early Betting Thoughts
Albon, top 6Norris/Piastri, lead lap 1
Gasly, points
Albon’s been fast all season and with the McLarens running close together with Verstappen at the start, there’s a chance of collision. On top of that, Ferrari and/or Racing Bulls might kibosh their driver’s hopes with poor strategy. Albon’s 5 to be top 6, which isn’t awful but isn’t great either.
Verstappen had a weirdly poor start in China. That might be a one-off, but if it’s a car problem then he stands a decent chance of getting passed off the line. At the time of writing he can be laid at 1.49 to lead lap 1, while Norris and Piastri can be backed, with Ladbrokes, at 3.5 and 11 respectively.
Gasly starts 11th, and was a bit unlucky to fall foul of weight in China. But for that, he would’ve already scored this year. He’s 2.2 for points, which isn’t fantastic, or terrible.
As usual, I perused the markets to see what else leapt out at me.
Albon, win group 3, 2.87
The only other drivers in group 3 are Tsunoda and Hadjar. I think Hadjar stands a good chance of being damaged by team strategy, the Williams looks good, and Tsunoda might be too far back in 15th to make up the ground.
I’ve backed Albon to beat Hadjar and Tsunoda at 2.87. Pace is similar but Albon’s delivered at every race so far.
Race start is 6am UK time.
Morris
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