F1 2025 Japanese GP Review and Bahrain GP Preview (Undercutters Ep15 transcript)
The Japanese Grand Prix is a classic track, but would the race this year be fantastic or forgettable?
Japanese Grand Prix Qualifying 00m22s
Qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix had some quite unexpected results.The two Saubers were out in Q1, Hulkenberg 16th and Bortoleto 17th. That isn’t too surprising, although Ocon leaving was a little more so. Doohan could only manage 19th which, after his big crash in FP2 due to leaving the DRS open into a corner, is making this a less than fantastic weekend for him. And slowest of them all was Stroll, who went on an off-track rally excursion.
The first session of qualifying also saw a couple of problems for the rookies. Antonelli was having difficulty getting heat into his tyres, leading to understeer and compromising his lap time, although he was able to escape the session. Hadjar had seatbelt problems, which is obviously bad for safety but also bad for comfort in a gentleman’s tender portions.
Q2 saw Gasly and Sainz the fastest men eliminated, although the Williams driver would end up further down the grid. Unfortunately, Sainz clearly blocked Hamilton on a hot lap during qualifying. He was given an entirely fair three place grid penalty. Behind Sainz was Alonso, and then came Lawson and Tsunoda, in that order. The Japanese driver did at least escape Q1 but his high downforce approach, compared to Verstappen, didn’t allow him to beat the driver with whom he swapped seats.
Qualifying also saw a brief red flag for another grass fire.
Heading into Q3 it seemed that McLaren were likely to get pole and probably a front row lockout, with Russell potentially there to pick up the pieces. However, Verstappen came from absolutely nowhere to claim pole from Norris by a hundredth of a second. It was an astonishingly good lap by the Red Bull driver, who really should not have been the fastest man in Suzuka qualifying. Piastri was four-hundredths off the pace and started 3rd, but must be annoyed because he screwed up the first sector and had the speed to claim pole.
From Piastri to Leclerc in 4th was almost three-tenths, with Russell just two-hundredths further back. The Briton also should’ve been higher up but messed up his final run in Q3. Antonelli was two-tenths behind Russell but started right alongside him on row three.
Hadjar did very well indeed to get into 7th, particularly considering his belt problems, while Hamilton starts 8th. Albon and Bearman round out the top 10, the Haas driver doing very nicely to beat his team mate, with Ocon out in Q1.
Race Review 3mins19s
The qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix was pretty good. Unfortunately, the race would not prove to be a classic.
There was rain but this happened before the race started. The top 10 opted for medium tyres, except Hamilton in 8th who started on the hard. Towards the back there was slightly more of a mix, including a couple on soft tyres.
Off the line it was formation flying with the entire top 10 retaining their places. There was slightly more change towards the back, especially Bortoleto who had a bad start and slumped from 17th to last.
The first pit stop was Stroll on lap 10, who swapped his soft tyres for hard. McLaren tried selling a dummy to Red Bull by calling Norris to box around lap 19 before keeping him out, but there was no sign of Red Bull falling for it.
The first of the frontrunners to pit was Russell, on lap 20, who put on hard tyres. This was followed a lap later by Piastri. On lap 22, Verstappen pitted from the lead, as did Norris from 2nd, and so did Leclerc.
Norris had a faster pit stop, the McLaren mechanics being a second quicker than their Red Bull counterparts. This meant the two cars exited the pit lane almost side by side, with Norris slightly behind. However, instead of settling right behind and trying to pass in a faster car, Norris drove himself onto the grass then blamed Verstappen for pushing him wide. This did not happen. The Dutchman maintained a steady line, was not obligated to leap out of the way for a rival who was behind him, and would’ve been at risk of cutting the pit lane exit line had he done so. It was ridiculous by the British driver. Reminded me a bit of a footballer diving to try and get himself a penalty.
Meanwhile, Antonelli inherited the lead and stayed out, with Hamilton becoming 2nd on the road and also staying out. Antonelli was on the medium tyres and was still in good shape, whereas Hamilton was making the most of his hard tyres. This was a smart move by Mercedes and Ferrari, to split their strategy, but McLaren didn’t take this chance to try and make life awkward for Verstappen. By pitting both drivers in quick succession the only thing they achieved was gifting Red Bull track position on a circuit they knew to be very tough for overtaking, in a race that everybody thought would have a single stop. McLaren contrived to guarantee victory for Red Bull. Doing otherwise might have led to the same result, but boxing Piastri one lap and Norris the next meant the likeliest outcome was Verstappen winning.
And that is just what happened. They were all very close on-track, but passing was tough and nobody had enough of an advantage. Verstappen’s amazing qualifying and good driving throughout the race got him a hard-earned victory, while Norris had to settle for 2nd. Piastri may be most disgruntled as he looked fastest on-track.
The top three had comfortably pulled away from Leclerc, who was 4th for Ferrari. While the McLaren was faster than the Red Bull, it’s interesting that Verstappen was clearly faster than the Ferraris. Russell was close to Leclerc and finished 5th, with Antonelli in 6th for another good result for the rookie. Hamilton was 7th, 11s down the road, having managed to get past Hadjar. Speaking of whom, Hadjar’s 8th is a solid result and marks two little milestones. It’s the first time the French driver has scored points, and it’s the first time Racing Bulls have got a strategy call right this year. Very solid stuff from him, and I’ve been impressed with Hadjar overall. Albon and Bearman finished 9th and 10th which is just where they started. They both did well in qualifying but the fact the top 10 saw a single position change, Hamilton ahead of Hadjar, gives away that this was not exactly a classic.
On the plus side, I always worry about forgetting highlights or trying to work out which bits of info to include. In a race super-boring, the only really critical thing was the pit exit nonsense by Norris. There was not a single DNF in the race.
Highlights and Lowlights 7m52s
Why was the Japanese Grand Prix as exciting as a slideshow about the history of pockets?There are a few reasons. The rain arrived before the race rather than during it, and wasn’t heavy enough to leave water on the track to make things tricky on slicks. This also meant there was no strategic dilemmas as teams grappled with when to pit and whether to opt for intermediate tyres or stick with dry ones.
The Suzuka track, which had been resurfaced, didn’t damage the tyres at all so the only concern was overheating. But this also didn’t happen because the cold weather meant drivers could push just fine. Overheating could be caused by running too close to a car ahead but because passing was so hard and a pit stop so costly it created gaps and less on-track action. This led to a race that has been previously been a two-stopper becoming a one-stopper. Due to dirty air almost everybody took the same approach with tyres and this meant nobody wanted to pit early and risk getting stuck in traffic, a serious problem due to gaps being narrow. Track position was king, even when the car behind had DRS.
In short, pretty much every factor combined to make this less than exciting as a race. But it does affect the title battle a fair bit. But first, a quick look at Tsunoda and Lawson. In qualifying, Lawson was 14th and Tsunoda 15th, but both got promoted a place due to Sainz’s penalty for impeding Hamilton. Come the race’s end, Tsunoda finished 12th, 58s behind Verstappen, and Lawson was 17th, 45s behind Hadjar.
It’s a bit of an unfair race for assessing pace, though, because dirty air and difficulty passing means there wasn’t a huge opportunity to show off driving skills. Tsunoda won’t be happy, and neither will Lawson. Verstappen won and Tsunoda didn’t score a single point, while Lawson went backwards and was a long way behind his team mate. I think both will improve but they need to do it quickly because we have Bahrain on the 13th and Saudi Arabia on the 20th.
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Japanese Grand Prix Predictions Assessment 10m19s
So, how bad were my predictions this weekend?
My pole prediction for Norris was one-hundredth of a second wrong. Wrong but not exactly miles off. I never had Verstappen even on the podium, so my call for Piastri to win was also wrong. However, I did get Norris in 2nd correct. Piastri ended up 3rd so my prediction of Russell was red too.
Alonso finished in 11th, just one place off, but my prediction for him to score points also failed. Likewise for Sainz, in 14th, who has still not got to grips with the Williams. But my extra prediction for Lawson to outqualify Tsunoda did come off. They were slowest in Q2, with the Kiwi a whole tenth ahead of the Japanese driver.
F1 2025 Standings after Japanese Grand Prix 11m14s
After the Japanese Grand the driver standings at the top look like this:Norris is on 62 points, Verstappen has 61 points. Piastri has 49 points, and Russell has 45 points.
The top four teams are McLaren on 111, Mercedes on 75, Red Bull on 61 (all Verstappen), and Ferrari on 35.
So, Verstappen’s right in the fight and Norris extended his advantage over Piastri. But I don’t think the Japanese Grand Prix was as good for the two title leaders as it might appear. Verstappen’s qualifying lap was amazingly good, and from there he was able to retain the lead and win against two faster cars. This was because passing was very hard indeed and McLaren made a strategic error by not splitting their approach.
By the way, for those who heard commentators asking why Piastri was not let through by the team to try and pass Verstappen: I never expected this to happen. Firstly, McLaren have made a big thing about treating drivers equally. Letting one ahead and sacrificing a place from the title leader flies in the face of that. Secondly, Norris would ignore it. Yes, Piastri looked faster. But Norris looked faster than Verstappen and couldn’t get close. If the team wanted to try and give him a chance they could’ve done it by splitting the strategy. You can’t say you’re treating drivers equally then ask one to just stand aside when they’re both in a title fight.
Anyway, Piastri looked the faster of the two men. This didn’t matter in the Japanese Grand Prix because passing was harder than a hard thing, but it will matter elsewhere. Likewise, while Verstappen was clearly quicker than Leclerc he was slower than both McLarens. You can defend in a slower car at some circuits but not everywhere, and he was only in the lead due to an astonishing qualifying lap which won’t happen every weekend. At the moment, I still think the title fight is really between Norris and Piastri, with Verstappen capable of upsetting things and retaining his title if the Red Bull is developed well.
The combination of a wet Australia and the Japanese factors I’ve banged on about already both really helped Verstappen. At a normal dry race, where passing is possible, Verstappen will struggle to beat the McLarens because they’ve got two faster cars at the sharp end. He might be helped out, though, if they make more strategic errors, which is something they did in 2024 as well.
All that said, Verstappen should not be a single point off the lead. He’s driving very well and matching the McLarens in a car that’s slower. They aren’t building up an advantage like they should be, and Verstappen might yet retain his title. If the flexi-wing change in Spain proves to be significant, this might even shift Verstappen into being the favourite.
Well, the Japanese Grand Prix was not a thriller but luckily the next race is this coming Sunday. The Bahrain Grand Prix should, hopefully, be rather more entertaining.
Quick Look at the Bahrain International Circuit 14m37s
Bahrain is one of the best-known tracks on the calendar as far as driver experience goes because it’s where testing was hosted. As covered in episode 10 of the Undercutters podcast, testing was a lot cooler than anticipated and even featured light rain on a few occasions. But the days of testing and three Grands Prix so far means that teams should head into this race with a very good idea of how to get the setup right.There are numerous straights, with three of them featuring DRS zones, each with their own separate detection point. The longest is the starting straight, with another between turns 3 and 4, and one more between turns 10 and 11. Overall, the circuit is 5.4km long, which means the race will have 57 laps. The circuit has seen some classics, including the Duel in the Desert between Hamilton and Rosberg in 2014.
Wind can be a factor in Bahrain, and the timing of the race means that temperatures can vary quite significantly from practice sessions to qualifying and the race. This makes the second practice session the most important, as the time of the first and third sessions is hours earlier than qualifying or the race.
Recent Bahrain Grands Prix 15m58s
Here’s a quick rundown of how the last two races in Bahrain went.The 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix was the first race of that year, and it seemed to herald another dominant Red Bull season. While 2024 was far more competitive, Bahrain was rather one-sided. Verstappen started on pole, ahead of Russell, Leclerc, and Sainz. Perez led row three, ahead of Alonso, with Norris and Piastri on the fourth row, and Hamilton and Hulkenberg rounding out the top 10.
Anticipated as a two-stop race, the grid all started on soft tyres. Verstappen kept his lead off the line. Further back, Perez got ahead of Sainz, and Hulkenberg collided with Stroll. This put the Canadian at the back of the pack, while Hulkenberg suffered front wing damage.
Lockups for Leclerc helped both Russell and Perez to get past him, while Verstappen serenely increased his lead at the front. Russell and Leclerc pitted first, the latter’s tyres clearly shot. Verstappen and Sainz stayed out but many others reacted swiftly, including Perez, who managed to get ahead of Russell and into 2nd. Leclerc’s locking woe continued, and Sainz passed his team mate and soon got ahead of Russell as well.
Hamilton had a rough race, with battery problems and his seat becoming broken. It was worse still for Sauber, who encountered their first nut problem that led to a pit stop for Bottas lasting almost a minute.
Most drivers opted for hard tyres at the second pit stops, but the Red Bulls went for the soft. Late on, Leclerc was closing on Russell only for the Mercedes driver to make a mistake, running wide and making it a piece of cake for the Ferrari driver to slip ahead.
Verstappen won by 22s over Perez, who was just a few seconds ahead of Sainz. Leclerc was 4th, followed by Russell, Norris, Hamilton, Piastri, Alonso, and Stroll.
The 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix was just one part of the Max Verstappen victory tour that year but it did still have some drama. On the grid, Verstappen had pole ahead of Perez, while Leclerc led Sainz on a Ferrari second row. The third row had Alonso then Russell, with Hamilton, Stroll, Ocon, and Hulkenberg rounding out the top half of the grid.
Off the line, Verstappen was fine but Perez dropped a place to Leclerc and there was friendly fire at Aston Martin as Stroll hit Alonso from behind. This allowed both Mercedes to get ahead of Alonso, with Hamilton ahead of Russell. At the front, Verstappen was increasing his lead and Perez was right on Leclerc’s tail. A mix of tyre wear for Russell and great driving by Alonso enabled the Spaniard to get past the Briton.
At the pit stops different compounds were chosen by various teams, and Perez’s soft tyres were giving him the ability to close up on Leclerc, who was on hard tyres. On lap 26, the Mexican made his move on the Monegasque to reclaim 2nd place. After the second pit stops, Perez stayed 2nd while Alonso, who had been in 3rd due to those ahead pitting earlier, came out 6th. Alonso set about chasing Hamilton, who put up a fight but ultimately was unable to keep his old rival behind. Leclerc then retired with a reliability failure, promoting Alonso to 4th. Next on the road was Sainz, who was struggling for traction on tyres about five laps older than Alonso’s. The elder Spaniard was also the faster, and duly claimed the final podium position.
Verstappen’s win was another seemingly effortless cruise to victory, while Perez recovered from an iffy start for 2nd and was joined by Alonso on the podium. Sainz and Hamilton finished 4th and 5th, with Stroll in 6th for a strong Aston Martin result. Easy to forget now but early in 2023 the Aston Martin was the best team other than Red Bull. Russell finished only 7th, with Bottas, Gasly, and Albon completing the points positions.
Tyre wear and difficulty getting the cars in the right window, especially for Red Bull and, to a lesser extent, McLaren, could make this a race where plenty of positions change hands. And while qualifying’s always important, this isn’t Monaco and tyre life matters as much as track position.
Predictions for the Bahrain Grand Prix 20m28s
My predictions so far could be politely described as patchy, but here’s how I see the Bahrain Grand Prix going.
I think Piastri has a solid shot at qualifying. He’s been better in qualifying than he was last year, and was close to Norris in 2024. Given the fastest car and improved performance, Piastri for pole is what I think will happen.
And Piastri for the win. I think it’ll be a dry, ordinary race, and Piastri will repeat what he did in China, looking assured from start to finish. In second place, I’ve gone for Norris. The McLarens should be racking up 1-2 finishes, and Bahrain is easier for overtaking than Japan. For third, I’m backing Verstappen. Although he wasn’t as quick in the race as the McLarens, all three pulled away from Leclerc. It’s possible Russell could get in there but it seems Verstappen’s getting more to grips with his car.
Midfield points is tough to call as all but one team have points on the board. But I’ve gone for Albon and Ocon. Albon’s fairly straightforward, he’s scored consistently. Haas are a bit feast or famine, and Bearman had a better time in Suzuka, but I think Ocon will have another strong weekend in Bahrain.
For my extra prediction, in addition to the race being rather more exciting than the one in Japan, I think Bahrain will see Tsunoda reach Q3. Although his qualifying was relatively poor, the Japanese driver had done a mostly good job throughout the weekend, and I think come the next he’ll be in better shape.
F1 News 22m18s
F1 news.Perez has given an interview to the official F1 website, which has some interesting information. Perez said that he’d been approached by a few teams since leaving F1 at the end of the 2024 season. One thing he said, entirely fairly, is that with Lawson’s performance at the start of this year people are realising how hard the car was to drive last year as well. While Perez started that season strongly, with multiple podium finishes in the first five races, he was way off the pace towards the end. But it does seem to be more of a car driveability problem than a Perez or Lawson problem.
According to the F1 website, one of the teams is said to be Cadillac, a new team joining the grid in 2026 and increasing the number of drivers to 22. This would make a lot of sense as Perez is a good driver and also one with extensive experience, potentially making him a good option to pair up with a newcomer. Bottas is another experienced driver that might end up returning to the grid, and while a boatload of new drivers arrived on the grid in 2025 it’s possible we might see yet another in 2026, with IndyCar driver Colton Herta on the radar of Cadillac.
Thank you all for listening. The next podcast will be up on Tuesday the 15th of April, and will both review the Bahrain Grand Prix and look ahead to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
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